Inter Milan vs. AC Milan Odds & Picks

Date: 
February 21, 9:00 AM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Inter -0.5/Milan +0.5
Moneyline: 
Inter +105/Milan +250/Draw +250
Total: 
Over 2.5 (-140)/Under 2.5 (+105)

Last Time Out:

Inter defeated Lazio 3-1; AC Milan lost 2-0 to Spezia.

Previous meeting:

AC Milan edged Inter 2-1 on Oct. 17 at San Siro.

About the Matchup:

It's been nine years since anyone not named Juventus won the Serie A crown as Italy's best side, but the two Milanese squads are in a position to finally end Juve's steel grip on the trophy. It's no surprise that these two are the sides to step into the void, as they were the last two besides Juventus to win the trophy (every title in Serie A since 2000 has gone to either Inter, Juventus, or AC Milan), and Inter, in particular, seems determined to seize this opportunity after winning four of its past six contests — including a win over Juventus. But AC Milan's been the side that has led for most of the year, and the Rossoneri was able to upend the Nerazzurri back in October to give them the early cushion. However, that's AC Milan's only win in its past nine Serie A clashes against its city rival. Can Milan get a win and move back into first place when it needs it most?

Scouting Inter Milan:

Romelu Lukaku found the net for the 300th time in his career in Inter's 3-1 win over Lazio, and the Belgian is now up to 16 goals on the season. Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez have combined to score 27 of Inter's goals this year, and they're a large part of why the Nerazzurri owns a goal differential of plus-30 and hasn't tasted defeat in any of its past seven matches. The key will be the defense, which has improved quite a bit in the past few months. Inter has given up just one goal in its past five matches in Serie A, and the Nerazzurri haven't been beaten all season when they've held their opponent to under two goals. It's no coincidence that Inter's rise has come as its defense has improved: four of Inter's seven shutouts on the season have come during the past month.

Scouting AC Milan:

Any team that has Zlatan Ibrahimovic on its roster is a team that's built around him, and Milan is no exception. Sometimes, that's a good thing, as it was when Ibrahimovic scored two goals in less than five minutes against Inter when the sides met earlier. But sometimes, it backfires hard, which it did in losses to Spezia and Atalanta over the past five matches. The Rossoneri got shut out in both matches, two of just three defeats in the entire campaign.

And that's the danger with being too dependent on Ibrahimovic, as when he either doesn't play well or is absent from the action, Milan is a bit disorganized and open to be picked apart. A recent loss to Inter in the Coppa Italia symbolized this perfectly, as Inter took control following Ibrahimovic losing his cool and getting sent off with a red card. If Ibrahimovic doesn't perform at his best, the job falls to Franck Kessie, who has just one goal in his past five matches.

Dan's Score Prediction:

Given how well Inter is playing right now, I can't go against them here, even against the side that's led Serie A since the fourth match of the season. AC Milan is struggling at the moment, and Inter is surging at precisely the right time. There's still plenty of season left after this match, but I think Inter recognizes this is its time and reverses the score from the October matchup. I'll take Inter by a 2-1 count at +800.

Dan's Best Bets

Inter is the side that's in form and has dominated this matchup in recent years, so I'm going to lean toward taking them to grab a victory here. However, I think we can do better than just over even money, and I'm going to take Inter to win and both to score at +260. Four of the past five matches between these teams have seen both teams find the net, and there hasn't been a draw in this matchup since 2018.
 
I'd also throw a bet on Inter scoring the first goal within the first 45 minutes. In four of its past five matches (the exception was a scoreless draw at Udinese), Inter has found the net and gone ahead 1-0 in the first half. You'll get +135 for this to occur again, and I really think there's a good chance this cashes.
 
Finally, I'd throw even money on the second half being the higher scoring of the two. In Milan's past four matches, 12 goals have been scored. Nine of those have come in the second half, which should be desperation time for a pair of quality sides. If you want to get aggressive, I like +250 on exactly two goals coming in the second 45 minutes.