Everton vs. Southampton Odds & Predictions

Everton vs. Southampton Odds & Predictions

Dan Jamison
Date: October 25, 10:00 am
Location: St. Mary's Stadium
TV: NBCSN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Everton +145/Southampton +180/Draw +250
Total: Over 2.5 (-134)/Under 2.5 (+100)

<h2>
Last Time Out:<br />
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<p>
Everton drew 2-2 with Liverpool; Southampton drew 3-3 with Chelsea.
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<h2>
Previous meeting:<br />
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<p>
The sides drew 1-1 on July 9 at Goodison Park in Liverpool.
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<h2>
About the Matchup:<br />
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<p>
Nobody's surprised to see a team from Liverpool on top of the Premier League standings, but absolutely nobody thought that Everton would be that team. Three months after watching its greatest rival finally win the Premier League, Everton is off to an outstanding start, winning its first four matches and taking a draw with Liverpool. With Aston Villa going down to defeat on Friday, Everton is now the only team in the Premier League without a loss, and the Toffees are starting to dream of a year like 2005, the only time in Everton's history that they've finished in the top four of the league. Southampton's start wasn't anywhere near what the Saints were hoping for, but this has always been a resilient side, and after opening up with two losses, Southampton seems to be back on track. The Saints have two wins and a draw in their past three matches, and they've got one of the best scorers in the league in Danny Ings. But when they're playing their kind of soccer, the Saints are a defensive side first, and two of their past three matches have ended with zeroes on the scoreboard for their opponents. Can Southampton finally be the team that brings Everton back to earth?
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<h2>
Scouting Everton:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Getting a draw with Liverpool was a great achievement, but it came with a real cost, as the Toffees saw their attack decimated by both injuries and a suspension. Richarlison made a foolish challenge late in the match with Liverpool and was sent off, while James Rodriguez picked up an injury in the draw and won't be available for this match. With two of Everton's best scorers on the shelf, that shifts Dominic Calvert-Lewin from main scoring threat to only scoring threat. Calvert-Lewin has been outstanding this season, scoring seven goals in five matches, but he's also done that while playing in a lineup that includes the likes of James, Richarlison and Gylfi Sigurdsson, which has allowed him to find space and get quality chances. Without his partners fully fit, Calvert-Lewin will draw most of the attention from Southampton's defense, which could make it difficult for him to find a breakthrough. Everton hasn't seen a match under three goals since the 1-0 win over Tottenham in the season opener, but this could be the one that sees the Toffees' attack stymied, as they aren't anywhere close to full strength and could really struggle with getting more than a goal from this encounter.
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<h2>
Scouting Southampton:<br />
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<p>
The Saints looked dead in the water twice against Chelsea, falling behind by scores of 2-0 and 3-1. But each time, Southampton managed to come back, finally scoring the tying goal in stoppage time. What makes the Saints so dangerous is that they have a proven goal scorer in Danny Ings, who is capable of turning a match around at any point. To date, Ings has found the net four times in this young season, and when he's on, Southampton is never really out of a match. But this is still a side that is defense first, and playing a 3-3 match against Chelsea or a 5-2 match against Tottenham isn't the way that the Saints want to play. Southampton is much more comfortable when it controls the flow of the game and limits the number of chances a team has, which makes this a perfect setup for their ideal playing style. With Everton down two scorers, the Saints should be able to focus their attention on Calvert-Lewin and keeping him from beating them. As long as the defense does its job, one goal from Ings could be enough.
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<h2>
Dan's Score Prediction:<br />
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<p>
As good as Everton has been through five matches, this is always a tricky trip for them, and it's not one that I think goes favorably for them. The run at the top has to end sometime for the Toffees, and this is a side that has had a lot of success against them and knows how to play tough defense. I don't think Everton is ready for that challenge when it's down two starters, and I will back Southampton to hand the Toffees their first loss by a 2-0 count at +1400.
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Everton vs. Southampton Predictions 10/25/20

Despite Everton's scoring prowess, I don't think it continues in this match. Being down two starters and carrying the weight of expectations comes with some problems, and there's also the fact that Everton hasn't played all that well at Southampton over the years. Last season was a rare win for the Toffees at St. Mary's, but five of their past seven visits to the south coast of England have ended with the Saints coming out on top.

 

 

 

Given that, I think taking Southampton is the way to play this match, and at +180, I don't really think you need to be more aggressive than that. But if you're feeling more aggressive, I'd go with the Saints and under 3.5 goals at +275. I think that goals might be hard to come by in this matchup, but I want insurance against an Everton goal if it turns out that I'm wrong. If you're fine going without a safety net, you can get +550 to take the Saints and under 2.5 goals.

 

 

 

I'd also back Danny Ings to find the net in this game. He's +115 to do it, but he's scored in three of Southampton's five matches this season. If Southampton is going to get a win here, he's likely going to be a reason why.

 

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