Everton vs. Newcastle United Picks 11/1/20

Everton vs. Newcastle United Picks 11/1/20

Dan Jamison
Date: November 1, 9:00 am
Location: St. James Park
TV: NBCSN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Everton +105/Newcastle +275/Draw +240
Total: Over 2.5 (-115)/Under 2.5 (-115)

<h2>Last Time Out: </h2>
<p>Everton lost 2-0 at Southampton; Newcastle drew 1-1 with Wolverhampton.</p>
<h2>Previous meeting: </h2>
<p>The sides drew 2-2 on Jan. 21 at Goodison Park in Liverpool.</p>
<h2>About the Matchup: </h2>
<p>Is the bloom off the rose for Everton? The Toffees remain in first place, but their past two matches have left a little to be desired. Getting a draw with Liverpool is understandable, but Everton then fell victim to the dreaded St. Mary's Curse yet again, getting shut out at Southampton. To make matters worse, that marked the fourth time in five matches that Everton has allowed two goals to their opponent.</p>
<p>Two goals would be an achievement for a defensive-minded Newcastle side that hasn't played all that great this season, but has managed to grind out results. Despite playing the likes of Tottenham and Wolves away, the Magpies came away with two draws and have avoided defeat in three of their past four matches. They've also tended to be tough on Everton whenever the teams have met, as each of the past five matches has either been a draw or decided by exactly one goal. Can Newcastle keep its run going and make Everton start asking questions about how good they really are?</p>
<h2>Scouting Everton: </h2>
<p>The attack looked like it would be decimated against Southampton via suspensions and injuries, and that's exactly what happened, as Everton fired its first blank of the season. The Toffees should look more like themselves with James Rodriguez getting back to full strength and Richarlison again on the pitch, but the more pressing concern is the Everton defense.</p>
<p>Giving up two goals to Liverpool is no big deal, but giving up two goals to West Bromwich Albion is quite another matter. The Baggies have just six goals to their name this season, and two of those came against Everton. Of course, that didn't affect the match itself because Everton put home five goals, but when the Toffees can't outscore their opponent, they've been in trouble. The past two matches have shown that as the schedule gets more difficult, Everton will not be able to rely on simply pumping home more goals than its opponent — especially against defensive-minded sides, such as Southampton or Newcastle.</p>
<h2>Scouting Newcastle:</h2>
<p>If not for a truly nightmarish 10 minutes against Manchester United, we'd be talking about a four-match unbeaten run for the Magpies. With four minutes remaining in regular time, Newcastle had a point as well as a third 1-1 tie in four matches in its grasp, but United then hit the gas and scored three goals to leave the Magpies with an ugly defeat.</p>
<p>However, that kind of thing hasn't happened often against Newcastle this season, as the Magpies have established themselves as one of the best defensive sides in the Premier League. If not for that disastrous 10 minutes, Newcastle's total would be seven goals conceded, which would rank tied for first with Arsenal.</p>
<p>On the flip side, Newcastle has two major flaws. They don't score often, and they have a flair for the dramatic that has bitten them at times. Callum Wilson is the main scoring threat for the Magpies with four goals, but beyond him, Newcastle has just four other goals. What's more, the Magpies tend to leave matches very late, as they stole a point against Tottenham on the final kick of the match and snatched a draw against Wolves in the 89th minute of the match. Newcastle is a roller coaster: the result is usually positive, but with a lot of heart-wrenching twists and turns.</p>
<h2>Dan's Score Prediction:</h2>
<p>I think Newcastle dictates the tempo in this one, and because of that, I think this match will end up the way Newcastle wants it to go. Lately, that's been in the form of a low-scoring draw, and I think that's exactly what's going to happen again. I'll take this to finish at 1-1 at +600.</p>

Everton vs. Newcastle United Predictions 11/1/20

This is a tough one to predict given Newcastle's defense and Everton's struggles on defense, but it seems that playing strength on strength is probably the correct way to go. The Magpies frustrate teams by denying them scoring chances, and Newcastle will be on the front foot until a goal is scored because of how it plays.

 

 

As such, I think the under is the way to play this. I don't see Everton getting its offense back on track against this team, and I think this match will be hard-pressed to see more than two goals in it. I also think that Newcastle on a double chance is an excellent conservative play, as the Magpies have played out two draws in four and have done so against good teams. Paying -134 isn't great, but it could be worse.

 

 

Finally, I'd back a score draw in this one. Both teams have scored in all but one Everton match and in four straight matches for Newcastle. You'll get +325 for this outcome.

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