Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur Predictions

September 19, 11:30 AM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Chelsea -1.5/Tottenham +1.5
Chelsea -140/Tottenham +400/Draw +275
Over 2.5 (+100)/Under 2.5 (-135)

Last Time Out:

Chelsea edged Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0; Tottenham drew 2-2 on Rennes.

Previous meeting:

Chelsea defeated Tottenham 1-0 on February 4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

About the Matchup:

After just four matches, Chelsea looks like it's got a genuine shot to follow up its Champions League win with a Premier League title, as the Blues have outscored their competition 9-1 over their past four matches. In five competitive games in the 2021-22 campaign, Chelsea hasn't given up a single goal in the run of play, as its only marker conceded was a penalty against Liverpool at Anfield.

Spurs has mostly done what it's needed to do and gotten out, having picked up three wins in four matches and earned each win by a 1-0 count. However, going down a man against Crystal Palace proved disastrous, as the Eagles blitzed Spurs for three goals in 15 minutes after Tottenham was reduced to 10 in their only loss of the season. With Son Heung Min on the shelf after suffering a calf injury while representing South Korea, Spurs look like they might be a little lost at the moment.

Scouting Chelsea:

What Chelsea is doing right now has been beautiful to watch if you're a fan of the Stamford Bridge squad or you're a fan of great defense. If you're a fan of wide-open soccer, however, Chelsea isn't the side for you because the Blues have been suffocating opponents and forcing them into weak shots whenever they get an attack at all. Crystal Palace faced both teams, and while the Eagles took 18 shots against Spurs and put six on net, they only managed four shots total against Chelsea, with just a single shot making it to the net.

Because Chelsea is so rock solid on defense, the offense has been able to get the early marker and then clamp down on the opposition. The Blues have scored in the first half of every Premier League match they've played this year, and because only Liverpool has come from behind, backing Chelsea to win the first half has proven an excellent way to bet.

Scouting Tottenham Hotspur:

What makes Tottenham go is the partnership of Harry Kane and Son Heung Min, and when one of them isn't on the pitch, Spurs just isn't quite the same side. Spurs did manage to get a draw with Rennes in the Europa Conference League, but one of the two Tottenham goals was an own goal, and it took 75 minutes for Spurs to actually find a goal of its own. This is not a side that's built on burying its opponents; this is a side that's built on finding its chance and then dictating the rest of the match, much like Chelsea. The difference is Chelsea's a deeper side, and Spurs isn't at 100 percent right now. With the attack struggling to get going, this could be tough sledding for Spurs against an opponent they don't traditionally have a lot of success against.

Dan's Score Prediction:

With both teams being defensive sides and both coming off European competition, don't expect many goals in this one. This is likely to be a tight struggle at both ends, and I think one goal will be enough to get the win here. I'll back Chelsea to get that marker and claim a 1-0 win at +550

Dan's best bets

Three straight competitive matches have finished with two goals or less, and the past two saw just one goal scored between the sides, with Chelsea potting the winning marker. As such, I think the best bet is on Chelsea to win and under 2.5 goals at +260. You can go for Chelsea to win to nil if you're worried about an explosion and get +165 for your troubles, but I can't see Spurs' defense folding unless someone gets sent off again. If you're worried about that possibility, this bet makes sense, although you might want to pair it with a red card being shown to someone at +375.
Beyond that, I'd go for Chelsea to win the first half at +130. The Blues have led at halftime in three out of four matches, and the one exception was because Liverpool equalized right before the first-half whistle. Chelsea has found a goal in the first half in all four games it's played against Premier League sides, so taking them to find the first goal in the first 45 minutes makes sense.