Chelsea vs. Fulham Odds & Pick

Date: 
January 16, 12:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Chelsea -200/Fulham +575/Draw +333
Total: 
Over 2.5 (-150)/Under 2.5 (+110)

Last Time Out:

Chelsea lost 3-1 to Manchester City; Fulham drew 1-1 with Tottenham.

Previous meeting:

Chelsea defeated Fulham 2-1 on March 3, 2019, at Craven Cottage.

About the Matchup:

It's the West London Derby, as Chelsea makes the one-mile journey down the street to take on its sectional rival. Actually, calling it a rivalry is a little bit of a stretch, as this has been about as much of a rivalry as “hammer vs. nail” over the years. The teams have met 28 times in the Premier League since Fulham ascended to the top division in 2001, and Fulham has an all-time record of 1-17-10 against its neighbor. The past five meetings have all been Chelsea victories, with the Blues scoring multiple goals on each of their past three trips to Craven Cottage. However, the opportunity might be here for Fulham to get something out of this match because Chelsea isn't playing well at all as of late. The Blues have lost four of their past six Premier League matches and have taken just four points out of a possible 18 in that stretch. In fact, Fulham has actually been the side in better form at the moment, as it's taken something from each of its past five matches. But all five of those matches have been draws, as the Cottagers haven't won a game since November 30. Can they add another draw to their run and finally take something off Chelsea?

Scouting Chelsea:

Here's a free tip for this match: if Chelsea doesn't have a goal by halftime, make a bet on Fulham double chance, because the Blues haven't managed to win a game without scoring in the first 45 minutes since October 3, when Chelsea dropped four goals on Crystal Palace in the second half. But since then, the Blues' big signings really haven't been producing much of anything. Timo Werner hasn't scored in any of the past nine matches, and Kai Havertz has just one goal to his name in 15 games. If it weren't for Olivier Giroud and Tammy Abraham, who have scored four of Chelsea's past six goals, there wouldn't be much of an offense to speak of from Stamford Bridge, which is why Frank Lampard is starting to feel the pressure in his second full season in charge. Anything but a win here will have Chelsea fans really asking questions.

Scouting Fulham:

Say this for Fulham: Scott Parker's side really seems to have the defensive side of the ball figured out. The Cottagers have only allowed three goals in their past five matches, and two of those came because they conceded a penalty, with the third coming in a game with Tottenham that Fulham had only 48 hours to prepare for. The problem is that Fulham doesn't really have much in the way of attack, which is why they've been shut out in both of their past two home matches. At this point in the season, Fulham knows that it's not going to be competing for one of the Champions League places, and its focus is simply on accumulating as many points as necessary to ensure that it avoids relegation. Getting points here, and there is an important part of any good survival strategy, especially for a team like Fulham, which has only put in one goal on its own in its past four matches.

Dan's Score Prediction:

Given what Fulham has done for its past five games and the fact that Chelsea is far from showing its best form, I'm willing to take a chance on an underdog getting a result for some plus money. I'm not crazy enough to think that this is the game where Fulham finally beats Chelsea, but I will gamble on Fulham's defense getting the job done here. I'm probably going to regret this, but I'll take a scoreless draw here at +825.

Dan's Best Bets

With how poorly Chelsea is playing, it's pretty tough to trust the Blues right now. Even though this is the opponent that Chelsea needs, the Blues are getting next to nothing out of their stars right now, and Fulham has been a wall at the back. As such, I think Fulham, on a double chance, holds a lot of value at +160. The Cottagers can likely hold this score down and likely even see out a scoreless match here with their form, and I don't trust Chelsea to break them down right now.
 
But if you just can't go against Chelsea, I'd back this match to finish under 2.5 goals at +110. There's no value to come from taking the Blues unless you're going to play it with something else, and my trust in Chelsea at the moment is pretty low. I can't see where the goals come from for either side, even though the idea of trusting Chelsea to keep a clean sheet away from Stamford Bridge absolutely frightens me.
 
The bet I feel best about is a scoreless first half, as Fulham has played very well at the back, and Chelsea doesn't appear to have much of a direction to its attack at the moment. At +200, there's plenty of value in the first goal (if there is one) not coming until the second half.
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