Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig Odds & Free Picks

Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig Odds & Free Picks

Dan Jamison
Date: January 9, 12:30 pm
Location: Red Bull Arena
TV: ESPN+

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Dortmund +185/Leipzig +140/Draw +250
Total: Over 2.5 (-150)/Under 2.5 (+110)

<h2>
Last Time Out:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Dortmund defeated Wolfsburg 2-0; RB Leipzig edged Stuttgart 1-0.
</p>
<h2>
Previous meeting:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Borussia Dortmund defeated RB Leipzig 2-0 on June 20, 2020, at Red Bull Arena.
</p>
<h2>
About the Matchup:<br />
</h2>
<p>
These teams have swapped places from a year ago, as Leipzig now finds itself as the most likely challenger to Bayern Munich's dominance of the Bundesliga, while Dortmund finds itself hanging on to a spot in the Champions League. There's a lot of soccer to be played, as we're only nearing the end of round one, but based on the fact that all of the big clubs still have to come to Red Bull Arena, it's hard to bet against Leipzig as the top contender. But that said, Dortmund is still a talented side that is a long way from giving up its challenge. All it takes is one stumble by Bayern Munich (stop laughing), and the Yellow and Black are right back in the race for the title. Even if they again find themselves looking up at Bayern, Dortmund still has a lot of pressure on it from behind, as it's got to worry about both Wolfsburg and an upstart Union Berlin breathing down its neck. The problem here is consistency, as Dortmund hasn't won consecutive matches since Halloween. Can they finally put two wins together and eat into Leipzig's title chase?
</p>
<h2>
Scouting Borussia Dortmund:<br />
</h2>
<p>
If Dortmund could get anything resembling consistency, they might be the time pushing Bayern Munich for first place. But the problem is that Dortmund hasn't strung two consecutive quality performances together all season, and the Yellow and Black are far too dependent on Erling Haaland to find the back of the net. Haaland has 10 of Dortmund's 28 goals, and when he's finding the net, Dortmund is difficult to defeat. In the nine games in which Haaland has played, six have been wins, and only one of them didn't include a goal or an assist from the Norwegian. But when Haaland isn't scoring, that's when Dortmund runs into problems, and with Jadon Sancho regressing from where he was a year ago, the Yellow and Black don't really have a secondary scoring option. Sancho has just one goal all year after scoring 17 a season ago, and the prevailing theory at Signal Iduna Park is that rumors about a move to Manchester United have thrown Sancho completely off of his game. As a whole, Dortmund has been a distracted team in 2020, and this will go a long way toward revealing if they're back to where they've been or if they're going to have the same problems they've shown all season.
</p>
<h2>
Scouting RB Leipzig:<br />
</h2>
<p>
If you're a fan of offense, you might want to switch over to the Colts-Bills game instead of watching this matchup because Leipzig's success is based on one thing above all else: the fact that that they don't let the ball in the net. Other than giving up three goals to Bayern Munich, the Red Bulls have basically been a brick wall this season, giving up a mere nine goals on the season against Bundesliga opposition. They're currently holding a four-match streak of not allowing a goal, which includes the last match against Stuttgart, who came in averaging two goals a game. The defense has allowed Leipzig to get away with not really having a dominant scorer on the roster, as Yussuf Poulsen and Angelino have just four goals each to lead the Red Bulls' attack. So far, that's worked against the lesser sides of the Bundesliga, but when a team does find a way past the defense, it's usually been enough to get a point off of Leipzig. When the Red Bulls give up a goal, they've got a record of 3-1-4, compared to a 5-0-1 mark when they've kept a clean sheet.
</p>
<h2>
Dan's Score Prediction:<br />
</h2>
<p>
As much as I don't want to trust Dortmund right now, the fact remains that the Yellow and Black really seems to have the Red Bulls' number right now. That said, this team still has a tendency of not playing two winning matches in a row, and I'm not going to back them to get a win here. I'm more comfortable playing on a 1-1 draw at +625.
</p>

Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig Predictions

It's tough to trust Dortmund here, but one thing the Yellow and Black have done consistently is frustrate the Red Bulls. Dortmund hasn't lost to Leipzig in more than three years and picked up a two-goal win in this stadium back in June. That's why RB Leipzig is still getting plus money to win this match despite its long unbeaten streak, and it's why I think there's a good chance that this match winds up a draw. At +310 for a draw with both teams scoring, I think there's a lot of value here.

 

I don't think the Red Bull defense can stop Dortmund's attack (the Yellow and Black have been shut out only once all season, and that was in their second game of the season), but nor can I see Dortmund keeping a clean sheet. However, Dortmund has shown an ability to keep goals out of the net in the first half, so I'd take a chance on a scoreless first half. RB Leipzig is at its best when it keeps goals out, and a scoreless draw at +210 offers a nice opportunity to make money off these teams' tendencies.

 

Finally, I'd take a flier on Haaland to score at +140. He's been shut out in two consecutive games, and this is a game where his team needs him to find the net. If he doesn't strike, Dortmund's probably going to get beat.

 

Get $60 Free Picks