San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds Analysis & Picks
The Padres dropped two of three games at home to the rival Dodgers last week, but they've taken the first two games of this four-game series in LA. San Diego shoots for the series victory Wednesday night at Chavez Ravine. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?
Listed Pitchers: Zach Davies (2-1, 2.87) vs. Julio Urias (1-0, 2.40)
MLB Betting Odds
Wednesday's MLB betting odds opened Los Angeles and Urias at around -170 over San Diego and Davies, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
The Dodgers could also be found getting around +120, giving the run and a half on the run line.
Padres vs. Dodgers Set-Up
San Diego took the opener of this series Monday night 2-1, then grabbed Tuesday's game 6-2. The Padres won as +180 underdogs on the MLB betting odds Monday night, then as +140 dogs Tuesday.
San Diego spotted Los Angeles the first run of the game in the second inning Tuesday night, then took control with five runs in the top of the third, highlighted by a grand slam by Manny Machado.
Also, both games in this series have played under their totals.
With Tuesday's win, San Diego is 4-1 over its last five games.
With the loss, the Dodgers are 1-3 over their last four games.
At 11-7 overall, the Padres and Los Angeles are tied for second place in the NL West, a game and a half behind first-place Colorado.
The Padres are playing against a "season wins" over/under of 31 for this abbreviated MLB season, so they only need to play .500 ball over their last 42 games to play over that total.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are playing against a wins O/U of 38, which was the highest total in Baseball.
Last year LA took the season series from San Diego 13-6.
Wednesday's Starting Arms
Lefty Urias is 1/3 on quality starts this season, but he's been better than that ratio might indicate. Last Friday, he only pitched four innings, throwing 78 pitches, allowing one run on three hits in a 7-2 victory over San Francisco. And on the season he's allowed just four runs on 11 hits and six walks through 15 innings.
The Dodgers are 2-1 with Urias this season.
Over four relief appearances vs. San Diego last year, Urias allowed one run and four hits through 4 1/3 innings, with two walks and five strikeouts.
Davies is 0/3 on quality starts this season, in part due to a short leash. Last Friday, he held Arizona scoreless on three hits through 5 2/3 innings, with six whiffs against zero walks, in a 3-0 Padres win. And for the season he's allowed five earned runs and 12 hits through 15 2/3 innings, with just one walk and 13 strikeouts.
San Diego is 2-1 with Davies this season.
In two starts last year against Los Angeles while still with Milwaukee Davies gave up just one run and 11 hits through 12 innings. The Brewers split those two games.
Wednesday's Batting Splits
San Diego is batting .228 this season against left-handed pitching, with a .304 team OBP and a .441 team slugging percentage. The Padres are also tied for the lead in the Majors in homers with 32.
The Dodgers are batting .242 this season against right-handed pitching, with a .320 OBP and a .451 slugging percentage. LA also ranks third in the Majors with 29 homers.
MLB Betting Trends
- The Dodgers played 59-22 at home last season.
- The Padres played 34-47 on the road last season.
- Los Angeles played an ML-best 77-34 vs. right-handed starters last season.
- San Diego played 14-22 vs. left-handed starters last season.
- Unders are 10-8 in Padres games this season.
- Unders are 10-5 in Dodgers games this season.
- Unders played 40-36 in games played at Dodger Stadium last season.
- Unders played 10-8 in Dodgers-Padres games last season.
- Get more details: Padres at Dodgers MLB Match-up Stats
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction 8/12/20
We're gonna give Davies a slight edge in the pitching match-up, based on his numbers against LA last year. And while the Dodgers might own advantages with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison, those are not enough to justify a price so high. So we like the betting value with underdog San Diego here.