Wild Card Picks: Patriots at Bills Spread Bet

January 15, 8:15 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
NE +4.5/BUF -4.5

The Patriots kicked the Bills around for 20 years with Tom Brady but Buffalo's trying to turn the worm, winning three of the last four meetings in this old AFL rivalry. After splitting two games during the regular season the teams now meet for an AFC wild-card game Saturday night in Buffalo.

The Bills are favored by a tweener number for this game but the underdog is 5-1-1 against the spread over the last seven meetings between these teams.

Which way are we going here with our free NFL wild-card betting pick?

NFL Wild-Card Betting Lines

The NFL wild-card betting odds opened Buffalo as a four-point home favorite over New Eng-land, with an over/under of right around 44. Both those numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.

According to Sagarin's NFL ratings at sagarin.com the Bills should be favored by five points for this match-up.

Patriots-Bills Wild-Card Betting Preview

New England started 2-4 this season, losing three close games, then won seven in a row to basi-cally secure a playoff berth. But the Patriots also then finished 1-3, capped by a 33-24 loss at Miami in the regular-season finale last week. New England still had a chance to win the AFC East going into last week's game but fell behind 17-0 early in the second quarter and never caught up from there.

In the end it didn't matter because Buffalo won its game to clinch the division.

So the Patriots are back in the playoffs after missing out last season and for the first time with young quarterback Mac Jones.

Two weeks ago New England beat Jacksonville 50-10 but just before that they lost back-to-back games to this Buffalo outfit and Indianapolis.

The Patriots out-gained eight of their last nine opponents - they even out-gained the Dolphins last week 379-298 - and out-rushed six of their last nine foes.

At 10-7 overall New England played over its season wins over/under, which was 9.5, and enters these playoffs as the No. 6 seed in the AFC.

The Bills, meanwhile, started 4-1 this season, with a win at Kansas City, then struggled through a 3-5 stretch which included a dismal loss to Jacksonville and tough losses to these Patriots and Tampa Bay. But Buffalo then won its last four games, with a win over this New England team and a 27-10 decision over the Jets last week.

The Bills held New York to 53 total yards last week (!) and covered as 16-point favorites.

So Buffalo is back in the playoffs for the third straight season.

Two weeks ago the Bills beat Atlanta 29-15; three weeks ago they beat these Patriots in Foxboro 33-21; and four weeks ago they beat Carolina 31-14. So Buffalo, which struggled a bit offensive-ly through the middle of the season, averaged 29 points per game its last five times out.

At 11-6 overall the Bills pushed their season wins O/U, which was 11, and enter these playoffs as the No. 3 seed in the AFC.

Patriots-Bills Recent History

New England beat Buffalo 31 out of 35 meetings from 2000-19 with Tom Brady at QB but the Bills are 3-1 against the Patriots since TB bailed to play for the Buccaneers. These teams split their two meetings this season, New England winning in bad weather in Buffalo 14-10, the Bills winning at Gillette Stadium 33-21.

The Patriots ran the ball for 222 yards in that first meeting back on Dec. 6 while Buffalo out-gained New England 428-288 in that second meeting on Dec. 26.

Also, that first meeting played under a total of 41 while that second meeting rolled over a total of 44.

NFL Wild-Card Betting Trends

  • Over the last six NFL wild-card rounds the home teams are just 13-13 SU, 8-17-1 ATS.
  • Over the last six NFL wild-card rounds the favorites are 15-11 SU, 8-17-1 ATS.
  • The Patriots played 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
  • The Bills played 2-4 both SU and ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.

Totals Report

The overs played 9-8 in Patriots games this season, which averaged 45 total points.

The unders played 9-8 in Bills games this season, which also averaged 45 points.

Over the last six NFL wild-card rounds the unders are 17-9.

Patriots at Bills Prediction ATS 1/15/22

New England runs the ball with its running backs while Buffalo relies heavily on QB Allen. We prefer the Patriots’ way. Also, New England ran the ball down the Bills’ throat in bad weather in that first meeting this season and conditions ain’t supposed to be great Saturday night in Buffalo. Also, following an off-performance last week in Miami we expect better from the Patriots here. We just see this game as something around 20-17 and four points might come in real handy. So we’re taking those points with Belichick’s boys.  

Free Pick: 
Take the Patriots + 4.5