Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts Odds, Analysis, Free Pick

November 28, 1:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
TB -3/Indy +3

The defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers run into one of the hottest teams in the league right now when they meet the Colts in Indianapolis Sunday afternoon. Tampa Bay appears on its way toward a division title while the Colts are rebounding very nicely from an 0-3 start to this season, chasing a playoff spot of their own.

The Bucs are favored by a field goal on the road for this one. Which way are we going with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 12 NFL betting odds opened Tampa Bay as a three-point road favorite for this game, with an over/under of right around 52. Early betting action then bumped that total to 53.

Buccaneers Betting Preview

On Monday night, Tampa Bay just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 30-10 win over the hapless Giants. The Buccaneers drove the game's opening possession 73 yards to a touchdown and led 17-10 at the half. Tampa then tacked on 13 points in the second half while keeping New York scoreless to secure the victory and the cover as a 10.5-point favorite.

The Bucs out-gained the Giants 402-215, won the time of possession by a 36:24 split, and won the turnover battle 3-1. Also, the only touchdown the Tampa defense gave up came on a 10-yard New York "drive" following a fluky Brady interception.

The Buccaneers have now out-gained seven of their last eight opponents and out-rushed five of their previous seven foes.

Two weeks ago, the Bucs looked kinda bad in losing at Washington 29-19, and three weeks ago, they led at New Orleans late but gave up the last 10 points and lost.

At 7-3 overall, Tampa Bay leads the NFC South by two and a half games over Carolina and the Saints. The Buccaneers also own the No. 3 spot in the NFC playoff standings, a game and a half behind top-seeded Arizona.

Colts Betting Preview

Indianapolis, meanwhile, just won its third game in a row, boffing the Bills 41-15 in Buffalo last week. The Colts hit the board on each of their first four possessions of the game and led 24-7 at the half. Indy then scored the first 14 points out of the locker room and eased home from there for the outright victory as a seven-point underdog.

The Colts out-gained the Bills 370-311, out-rushed Buffalo 264-91, dominated time of posses-sion by a 38:22 split, and won the turnover battle 4-0.

Indianapolis has now out-gained four of its last six opponents and out-rushed six of its previous eight foes. The Colts are also 6-2, both SU and ATS their last eight times out, after starting 0-3 this season.

At 6-5 overall, Indianapolis trails first-place Tennessee by two games and the head-to-head tie-breaker in the AFC South. So the Colts have to make up three games on the Titans from here on out to win the division. But Indy also sits in the No. 9 spot in the crowded AFC playoff stand-ings, just a half-game behind the No. 7 Chargers and just one game behind No. 2 Baltimore.

These two teams last met two seasons ago, a crazy 38-35 Tampa home win. But that was a quar-terback ago for both teams.

Vikings at 49ers Betting Predictions

NFL Betting Trends

  • After going 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS on Thanksgiving, home teams are just 77-87 SU, 66-98 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 100-66 SU but just 72-94 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home dogs are 20-43 SU, 29-34 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

The totals are split 5-5 in Bucs games this season, which are averaging 53 total points.

Overs are 7-4 in Colts games this season, which are averaging 50 points.

Under are 94-72 in the NFL this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts Prediction ATS 11/28/21

Normally we'd consider Indianapolis a good candidate for a letdown in a spot like this, coming off a big divisional road win, but one big thing that helps fend off letdowns is a great running game and the Colts got one of those. Also, Indianapolis is 6-2 over its last eight games, and both losses came in overtime. Also, we just think Tampa is too reliant on the pass; Brady's throwing the ball 42 times a game! We like the Colts here to win outright on the money line.       

Free Pick: 
Take Indianapolis +140