Super Bowl LV Pick: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers ATS Predictions

Date: 
February 7, 6:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Chiefs -3/Bucs +3
Total: 
56

On Super Sunday, one of the most enticing showdowns in Super Bowl history will transpire in between the confines of Raymond James Stadium between the defending champs in the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who will become the first team in NFL history to participate in a Super Bowl inside their home stadium. The magical match-up centers around the NFL's two biggest stars in Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Bucs QB Tom Brady. Brady, largely considered the greatest of all-time, will be making his 10th Super Bowl appearance despite being in his 1st season with Tampa Bay. If Brady can add ring number 7 to his historic collection outside of former Head Coach Bill Belichick's shadow, the debate for the G.O.A.T is completely over.

On the other side of the field, QB Patrick Mahomes appears ready to take the torch from Brady. After winning the MVP in 2018 in his first full season as the starter, Mahomes led the Chiefs to the promised land last year in Super Bowl LIV while winning the MVP in the biggest game of his career. At 16-2 SU, the Chiefs have the talent and supporting cast to usher in this era's new dynasty and will be going for back to back championships for the first time since Brady and the Patriots accomplished the feat in 2003 and 2004. Needless to say, this match-up has legendary status written all over it and will certainly be the biggest event of the year for sports bettors. As a result, let's discuss where you should place your money in this historic match-up.

Super Bowl Betting Stats and History

If you did not already know, the Super Bowl is the biggest betting event in sports. Bettors can wager on anything from the coin flip to how long the National Anthem will take to be sung and everything else imaginable in the form of prop bets throughout the game. Despite the enormous amount of prop bets, one wager still encompasses the most action. Obviously, I am referring to the betting "side," which currently has the Kansas City Chiefs favored at 3 points. Currently, sportsbooks are reporting that the Chiefs are getting 60% of the betting action from the public despite minimal line movement. The biggest Super Bowl bet reported thus far is a 2.3 million dollar wager on the Buccaneers +3. However, it is reported that eight of the other ten most expensive bets are siding with the Chiefs -3 and Chiefs ML.

From a historical narrative, the AFC and NFC have split the amount of Super Bowl winners at 27-27 going into Super Bowl LV. The betting favorite is 36-17 SU and 29-20-2 ATS. In recent years, the Super Bowl betting favorite has covered the spread in three of the last four big games, including the Chiefs at -1.5 against the 49ers last year. However, the growing trend seems to favor the betting underdog. Betting underdogs have cashed in 9 of the last 13 Super Bowl match-ups and are 15-8-2 ATS over the last 25 years. Though large focus can be lost with the spread, the major focus should be simply picking the winner of the big game. Only six times in the Super Bowl era has the betting favorite won the game and failed to cover the spread. Therefore, typically the winner of the "side" is simply the team that pulls out the win, which will likely be the case for Super Bowl LV based on the mere 3 point spread.

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Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs are 12-1 SU in the last 13 games.
  • The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS in the last ten games
  • The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings against Tampa Bay.
  • The Chiefs are 5-12-1 ATS in the last 18 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in the last five games and have won 7 straight games.
  • The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in the last five home games against KC, including this year's week 12 match-up.
  • The Buccaneers are also 5-1 ATS in the last six games against AFC opponents.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Betting Analysis

Lost in the hype and anticipation is the fact this Super Bowl pairing is a week 12 rematch from earlier this year. The Chiefs visited Tampa back in week 12 and pulled out a hard-fought 27-24 victory. Mahomes threw for a season-high 462 yards with three touchdowns, but the Buccaneers rallied in the closing minutes closing the lead to just 3 points before Kansas City was able to run out the clock in the final 4 minutes. Obviously, we can't place current expectations based on prior results, but I do think that week 12 match-up proves that the Buccaneers are going to be a difficult out for America's new dynasty team.

Additionally, I would argue that the Buccaneers defense is playing much better at this point in the season, which was on full display in the NFC Championship Game when they held the Packers to just 26 points despite a high-tempo game pace. The Buccaneers defensive line is the X factor in this match-up where both offenses should have the advantage based on each offense's tremendous talent. However, the Buccaneers defensive front has proven to be disruptive this postseason and even back in that week 12 match-up against the Chiefs. The problem Tampa Bay had in week 12 is when they created pressure, Mahomes was able to escape the pocket and consistently find WR Tyreek Hill running free due to broken down coverage. I expect Tampa Bay will have consistent over the top help on Hill throughout this game to prevent those huge plays down the field. I don't expect Hill to be shut-down by any stretch of the imagination, but I do expect the Buccaneers to put a heavy focus on preventing the big plays.

Keep in mind, Mahomes threw for 462 yards in the 1st meeting and only scored 27 points, which proves Tampa Bay's defense will be a difficult challenge. If the Buccaneers limit the big plays, as I expect, this game-script will turn into a strong scenario for the Buccaneers offense. Despite losing some arm strength in the latter years of his career, Brady is still a mastermind at managing the game and situations. Furthermore, Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette give the Buccaneers the opportunity to ride the ground game and intermediate passing game to keep the Chiefs off the field. If the Buccaneers execute and limit the turnovers, I think this is a favorable betting scenario where sharp money will prevail more times than not. If you want to take the Buccaneers and the money line, we have even more value in betting with the underdog. I know it's not the popular pick for most fans, but I really think this is a strong match-up for Tampa Bay as long as they limit the mistakes.

Super Bowl LV Pick Against the Spread

Free Pick: 
Take the Buccaneers +3