Super Bowl LIV Prop Bets

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Date: 
February 2, 6:30 PM EST

The San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl is a tough one to call, as the tight point spread will attest. In a game that's hard to call, perhaps there is more to be said for prop bets. Props are basically bets within a game. We're not betting on who will cover the spread but on other details within the game. Here are some different props that stood out to us as having some potential upside (available at MyBookie). Let's take a look!

Super Bowl MVP

This is a bit of an unusual landscape this season for Super Bowl MVPs, being that these teams have any number of different ways to get to the winner’s circle. It’s a very QB-friendly award, as that position is always a huge favorite. And if the Chiefs win, one could see Patrick Mahomes as a clear choice. But with other offensive heavyweights on that offense, they can't be ruled out, either. If the Niners win the Super Bowl, it could go any number of directions. QB Jimmy Garoppolo often doesn’t have the stats to warrant winning the MVP, opening things up for any number of different choices, some of which are going off at nice odds. We feel this is the type of bet where we like to spray the board a little, hitting some favorites, as well as some longer shots. Here are our best choices.

Patrick Mahomes -110 – a clear top pick.
Jimmy Garoppolo +275 –can’t count out QBs.
Raheem Mostert (+650) –at his clip, a major threat.
Tyreek Hill (+1900)—quiet in the postseason, but could explode.
Travis Kelce (+2100) –a potential centerpiece of a Chiefs’ winning effort.
Deebo Samuel (+2300) –a rookie going off at a good number who has shown he can dominate.
Tevin Coleman (+6500) –Not always a factor, but an explosive X-factor at a long price.

Game Props

Game props are basically yes/no questions as to whether an event will take place in a game. It can revolve around if something will happen, by what time it will happen, or what will happen first. These bets seem to fall into two categories—things that can actually be handicapped and more-random events where a hunch is all you have to work with. We prefer the less-random props, where one can actually enlist some insight to make the right pick. Here are some we like.

Largest Point Lead of Game: 16.5 Points (Over: -120, Under: -110)

Pick: Under. For a game with such a tight spread, it would be unusual for a team to take such a big lead. In what seems like an evenly-matched game, the margin might not grow so large.

 

Total Sacks by Both Teams: 5.5 Sacks (Over: +100, Under: -130)

Pick: Over. Both pass-rushes have been peaking in the postseason, and at the underdog rate, "over" appears to be the safer pick. There’s a lot of monsters on both sides.

 

Will the Game Be Decided by Exactly 3 Points (Yes: +350, No: -550)

Pick: No. For a game that figures to have points in bunches, key numbers resonate less, and for those extreme chalk-hunters, this isn't a bad move.

 

Team to Score Longest Touchdown: San Francisco -110, Kansas City -120

Pick: San Francisco. Though the underdog in this prop, San Francisco had about 10% more bigger plays than KC did this season. It seems like the book almost wants you to take the Chiefs.

 

Player to Score First TD of the Game

Something about this bet is just fun. One can rack their brains, trying to make a pick. We think this bet calls for some more-exotic choices, as we go down the list a bit looking for some big return on our bucks. Here's who we like.

Deebo Samuel (+1200) –With KC honing in on Mostert, Deebo could be their go-to.
Tevin Coleman (+1200) –Could surface as a big red-zone threat.
Sammy Watkins (+1600) –With so many eyes on Hill and Kelce, could it be Sammy?
Kendrick Bourne (+2000) –Just reeks of the perfect low-key pick for this.
Demarcus Robinson (+2500) – A guy Mahomes like to hit when coverage is focused on others.
Patrick Mahomes (+2500) –An athletic presence who might see a spot to take it in.
Richie James (+5000) –A good longshot, between his work as a return man and reserve receiver.

Winning Margin

Sure, the game appears to be a tightly-contested one. In a season where the unusual is the norm, maybe there is something to be said for taking a more extreme stance. While there have been some great Super Bowls and a handful of them coming in recent years, it’s not always a great game. A look at Super Bowl results shows a lot of lopsided games, including eight double-digit games since 2000. In a game where a tight contest is anticipated odds-wise, there can be some nice upside in taking a more drastic position. After all, neither of these teams have had any close playoff games. Here’s a few we like.

  • 49ers Win by 7-12 Points (+570)
  • 49ers Win by 13-18 Points (+850)
  • 49ers Win by 19-24 Points (+1400)
  • Chiefs Win by 7-12 Points (+500)
  • Chiefs Win by 13-18 Points (+750)
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