Super Bowl LIII Total Line Pick

February 3, 6:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
New England -2.5

This season’s Super Bowl pits the AFC’s New England Patriots against the NFC’s Los Angeles Rams in a winner-take-all showdown late Sunday afternoon at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Game time on CBS is slated for 6:30 p.m.

New England at Los Angeles Game Overview

This is the Patriots’ third-straight trip to the Super Bowl with a win against Atlanta and a loss to Philadelphia in the first two games. Their run towards this season’s title game included a pair of victories both straight-up and against the spread in the playoffs. After beating the Los Angeles Chargers 41-28 as a four-point home favorite, New England got past Kansas City 37-31 in overtime as a three-point road underdog. The total went OVER in both games after staying UNDER in six of their last seven regular season games.

Tom Brady is the clear favorite to win Super Bowl LIII MVP honors if his team goes on to win this game. The veteran quarterback has thrown for 691 yards in those first two postseason contests with a healthy 71.1 completion percentage. He has two touchdown throws and two interceptions. Rookie running back Sony Michel has run the ball 53 times in his last two games for 242 yards and five scores. Rex Burkhead scored the game-winner in overtime against Kansas City on a short run as part of his 53 rushing yards in the postseason.

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The Rams’ trip to Atlanta as the second seed in the NFC also includes a pair of wins both SU and ATS. After outlasting Dallas 30-22 as seven-point home favorites, they upended New Orleans 26-23 in overtime of the NFC title game as three-point road underdogs. Los Angeles has covered the closing spread in its last four games with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in five of its previous seven contests.

Third-year quarterback Jared Goff has 483 passing yards and just one touchdown throw in the postseason after throwing for 4,688 yards and 32 scores in the regular season. The Rams have done most of their damage on the ground in their last two games behind Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson. These two backs have combined for 292 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 59 rushing attempts. Brandin Cooks has been the Rams' leading receiver over the last two games with 11 catches for 172 yards.

New England vs. Los Angeles Game Betting Trends

  • The Patriots have gone 9-3 ATS in their last 12 postseason games. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last eight games in the postseason
  • The Rams are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games played on grass.
  • New England has a 5-1 edge ATS over the last six meetings with the total staying UNDER in four of those games.

New England vs. Los Angeles Total Line Prediction

The Patriots get the automatic edge betting the side in this game given their experience on the NFL’s biggest stage. However, the big question when it comes to the total line is will the game turn into a shootout as the current 56.5-point betting line suggests.

Even after shutting out the high-powered Chiefs in the first half of AFC title game, the Patriots gave up 31 points. I think it is going to take more than 30 points to beat the Rams this Sunday in a game that once again goes OVER.

Free Pick: 
Take the Over 56.5
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