Super Bowl 54 Props - Best Bets
The best way to bet Super Bowl LIV props is to first visualize how you see the game playing out. If you have Kansas City winning in a shootout or San Francisco’s defense dictating a low-scoring affair, the next step is to bet on the props that fit each different scenario.
Focusing on a few key player props from BetOnline, here are a few 'best bet' picks for Sunday's big game.
Kansas City- Patrick Mahomes Props
The Chiefs' gunslinger could easily be the most influential player on the field in Super Bowl LIV. San Francisco's defense might be able to frustrate him a bit, especially early in the game. Yet, when it is all said and done, he is still going to make his fair share of big plays, both passing the ball and running with it.
The prop bets odds of -155 favor that his first completion of the game goes OVER 7.5 yards, and I would have to agree. The odds for the UNDER in this prop are +135, but I do not see all that much value in the plus money.
In two previous playoff games this season, Mahomes has thrown for 615 yards. This was on top of his 4,031 passing yards in the regular season. Combined, he averaged 8.6 yards a completion. I like the chances that his first completion on Sunday does for at least a first down.
You could parlay this prop with the -210 odds that Mahomes first passing attempt is complete. This prop has a much higher risk vs. reward, so I am going to pass on that one.
The other Mahomes’ prop with added value is the +105 odds that his longest rushing carry goes OVER 14.5 yards. The betting odds on the UNDER are -125. With so much on the line, players with his ability will do whatever it takes to move the ball downfield. I actually expect a few big running plays from Mahomes with at least one going for 15 yards or more.
Kansas City- Travis Kelce Props
In the biggest game of the year, the game’s best players tend to make the biggest plays. Kelce is the NFL’s premier pass-catching tight end. If Kansas City goes on to win this game, you can almost guarantee that he was a big factor in the passing game.
The betting odds for his first reception favor the OVER 10.5 yards at -120. The betting odds for the UNDER are set at +100. I could easily see Mahomes first completed pass going to Kelce for a sizable gain.
Just to make things interesting, I am also going with the +110 odds that his longest reception of the game goes OVER 23.5 yards. The betting odds for the UNDER are -130.
San Francisco- Jimmy Garoppolo Props
Garoppolo is a bit of a wild card for me. He is going to have to play one of the best games of his young career to help the 49ers get the win. Yet, there are a number of players on this team that can make a significant impact.
One prop I do like is the -130 odds that his longest carry will be OVER 2.5 yards. He is not known for his tremendous mobility, but there is going to come a time in this game when Garoppolo has to take off for five or six yards to get a first down.
I would also go with the favorable +180 odds that his first passing attempt is incomplete or intercepted. The odds for a completion are set high at -220, but there is no value in that high of a number. Early jitters could be a factor on the NFL’s biggest stage.