SNF Pick: Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers

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Date: 
December 27, 8:20 PM EST
Location:
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Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
TEN +3/GB -3
Total: 
54

The Tennessee Titans battle the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football. A lot is still on the line for both teams. For the Packers, winners of 6 of their last 7, they are currently the top-seed in the NFC, looking to lock that up by winning out. The Titans, meanwhile, are looking to solidify their playoff position and win the division. Last week, both teams were successful leading to this one, with the Titans smashing Detroit, 46-25, while Green Bay scored a 24-16 win over Carolina last Sunday. Who can bring home the cover on SNF?

Both in Good Form

Green Bay has won 6 of 7, with the Titans having taken down four of their last five. Both teams made the conference title game last season, falling one game short of the Super Bowl. There isn’t much you can say about Matt LaFleur since becoming Green Bay head coach before last season, having won 24 of 30 regular games so far. And it seemed like a lot of people low-rated the Titans heading into this season, despite all their success last season. If looking to separate the two teams this season, perhaps Tennessee’s record is more-impressive despite having won one less game than Green Bay. Not to impugn the Packers’ record, but it is a bit strange for a playoff team from last year to be heading into week 16 at 11-3 with only one win over a team that was over. 500, a week three win over New Orleans. Tennessee, meanwhile, has some real nuggets on their ledger, like Baltimore, Buffalo, and Indy.

The Henry Factor

Based on recent form and history, Tennessee opponents have to brace themselves for the very real possibility that Derrick Henry will run wild. With almost 1700 yards and 15 scores, he is a different ball of wax when compared to other backs. Failing to keep him under wraps could end up determining the result of the game. Green Bay has upgraded their run-defense to some extent, a respectable 11th overall this season. But they’re not iron-clad enough to completely repel Henry. This is the time of the year, where the big back really starts running over defenses.

Other Tennessee Weapons

With opposing offenses keying in on Henry, it has allowed Ryan Tannehill more opportunity to connect well with a growing aerial cast. Both Corey Davis and AJ Brown have upgraded their form in recent weeks, and Tennessee could end up with two 1000-yard receivers. Add in two productive tight ends in Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser, and the Titans' offense really has a lot of tools. And lately, the line has been doing a better job opening up holes and keeping Tannehill protected.

Challenges for Tennessee in This Spot

As Tennessee gets in there with tougher company, we will see how well their defense will hold up. Pretty solid in their front-seven, they can make a lot of plays, play with a lot of energy, and be stout on occasion. The pass-defense really hasn't held up its end of the deal. In fact, it's the one part of the team that has maybe taken a backward step-less stout and making less big plays than they did last season. And when going against Aaron Rodgers and Company, that type of liability is something that will be difficult to camouflage.

Rodgers has 40 touchdowns and four interceptions, which is borderline ridiculous. They can run the ball well with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, both of whom can also do damage aerially. Davante Adams continues his push to become the best receiver in football, with big support from targets like Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Robert Tonyan, and Allen Lazard. The line is even better this season than last. They're sort of an easy team to neglect. You see a team with really just two stars in Rodgers and Adams. They're not talked about as often as a team should when they won 24 of their last 30. They're the top seed in the conference and could easily end up in the Super Bowl this season. Tennessee has a big task on its hands.

Advantages for Green Bay

Tennessee has the shiniest piece of offensive weaponry. But there are things Green Bay brings to the table that can help bridge that gap, beyond their own offensive firepower. Along both lines of scrimmage, Tennessee is capable but lags a little behind Green Bay on both sides of the ball. With guys like Jaire Alexander and Adrian Amos, the Green Bay secondary is better-stocked with real difference-makers. They’re at home in a time of the season where it can really make a difference, with the bigger talent at quarterback, more beef on the lines, and the better defense.

Tennessee at Green Bay Prediction ATS

Tennessee is tough. They're a well-coached team that brings it every week. They can make some of their weaknesses show less when everything is clicking. But with the top seed in the offing in a season where it means more, the Packers might have a little more of an ax to grind in this particular matchup. I see a well-contested game where the Packers get a little separation late to get the win and cover at Lambeau on Sunday night.

Free Pick: 
I’m betting on the Green Bay Packers minus the three points.
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