San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Total Pick
Two of the top half-dozen offenses in the NFL face off when the 49ers and Chiefs play Super Bowl XIV (that's 54, for all you non-Romans out there) Sunday, Feb. 2 in Miami. The total on this game, fittingly, sits at right around 54, and it's almost surprising it's not lined higher. Then again, San Francisco also owns perhaps the best defense in the League, and Kansas City's stop unit improved as this season progressed. How are we betting the total on this game with our free NFL Super Bowl pick?
Super Bowl 54 Betting Odds
Super Bowl LIV's betting odds opened the total for this game at right around 52; early betting action then bumped that figure to 54.
Super Bowl 54 Total Betting Preview
San Francisco just rolled over Green Bay in the NFC championship game last week, 37-20. The 49ers punted on their first possession of the game, then hit the scoreboard on their next six, building a 34-7 lead. San Fran then allowed the Packers two meaningless scores from there, creating a somewhat misleading final tally.
On the day, the 49ers produced 354 yards of total offense, almost 30 yards under their season average. But they ran the ball for a ridiculous 285 yards and only threw it eight times.
Why throw the ball when you're getting seven yards a pop on the ground?
Meanwhile, the San Francisco defense held Green Bay to less than 100 first-half yards and scoreless until midway through the third quarter. The Packers eventually managed 358 yards and 20 points, but none of them mattered.
Consequently, that NFC championship game played over a total of 46.5.
San Francisco opened these playoffs with a 27-10 divisional-round victory over Minnesota. The 49ers only produced 308 yards of offense that day but again, did most of their damage on the ground, running the ball for 186. Meanwhile, the San Francisco defense held the Vikings to just 147 total yards, 21 on the ground, and only seven first downs.
That game played under a total of 44, as the 49ers stop unit blanked Minnesota after halftime.
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Kansas City, meanwhile, just pulled off another come-from-behind victory, beating Tennessee in the AFC championship game 35-24. The Chiefs spotted the Titans the first 10 points of the game and trailed 17-7 well into the second quarter, then used a 28-0 run spanning the halves to take control, on their way toward victory.
For the day, KC produced 404 yards of total offense, while holding Tennessee to 295.
Also, that game played over a total of 51.
Kansas City opened its playoffs with that 51-31 divisional-round win over Houston. The Chiefs spotted the Texans the first 24 points of that game, then scored touchdowns on their next seven possessions, on their way toward victory.
KC produced 434 yards of offense that day, although the Chiefs defense gave up 442.
Also, that game played over a total of 51.
Kansas City allowed at least 28 points five times through its first ten games of this season, but that's only happened once over the Chiefs' last eight contests.
These teams met most recently back in Week 3 of last season; a 38-27 KC win at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs raced out to a 35-7 lead in the second quarter, then hung on from there.
Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo combined to throw five touchdown passes that day.
Also, that game played over a total of 53, as the teams combined for 790 yards of total offense, with zero turnovers.
49ers-Chiefs By the Numbers
San Francisco ranked fourth in the NFL this season in total offense at 381 YPG and second in total defense, holding foes to just 282 YPG.
Kansas City ranked sixth in total offense at 379 YPG and 17th in total defense at 350 YPG.
Also, the Chiefs tied for third-best in the NFL this season with just 15 turnovers, while the Niners ranked 19th with 23 turnovers.
Super Bowl 54 Totals Betting Trends
- Overs are 9-8-1 in Niners games this season, which are averaging 49 total points.
- Overs are 10-8 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 48 points.
- Overs are 5-2 over the last seven Super Bowls.
Free Super Bowl 54 Totals Pick
San Francisco will try to control this game with its running game and its defense. Kansas City, on the other hand, will just try to outscore the 49ers. Most importantly, though, as far as betting the total goes, this game looks like it should be close throughout, which leads us to think about the under. The two recent Super Bowls that played under were also close throughout, while several recent Super Bowls that played over did so in part because one team took a big lead, then let the other rally. We don't see that happening here. We're betting the under for Super Bowl LIV.