Saints vs. Raiders MNF Odds & Predictions

Date: 
September 21, 8:15 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
NO -5.5 / LV +5.5
Total: 
48

The formerly Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders begin their residency in fabulous Las Vegas when they host the New Orleans Saints at the brand new Allegiant Stadium Monday night. The Raiders won their first game with "Las Vegas" in their name last week on the road, but they're getting a touchdown as home dogs for this bout. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 2's NFL betting odds opened New Orleans at right around -5, with an over/under of 50.5. Early betting action then bumped the Saints to -6 at many betting outlets and dipped that total to 50.

Saints vs. Raiders Set-Up

New Orleans opened its 2020 campaign with a 34-23 win at home over Tampa Bay last week. The Saints spotted the Buccaneers the first seven points of the game, then used a 24-0 run spanning the halves, the previous seven points coming on a Janoris Jenkins pick-6 off Tom Brady on the opening possession of the second half, to take control. New Orleans allowed Tampa to get within 24-17 late in the third quarter but scored the next 10 points of the game to secure the victory and the cover as a four-point favorite.

On the day, the Saints managed just 271 yards of total offense, 82 yards on 34 rushing attempts, and only 18 first downs. But the New Orleans defense limited the Bucs to 310 total yards, 100 of which came in garbage time. The Saints also, crucially, won the turnover battle 3-0, producing a +17 points differential.

New Orleans also committed 119 yards worth of penalties, 101 coming on four defensive pass interference calls, so they'll have to clean that up.

Oakland, err …, Las Vegas opened its season with a wild 34-30 win at Carolina last week. The Raiders trailed 3-0 early, led 17-15 at the half, pushed that advantage to 27-15 midway through the third quarter but gave up a 15-0 Panthers run to fall behind 30-27 midway through the fourth. Las Vegas then immediately drove 75 yards to a touchdown, then stuffed Carolina on a 4th-and-1 from the Raiders' 46-yard line with just over a minute to go to secure the W and the money as three-point road favorites.

On the day Las Vegas got out-gained by the Panthers 388-372, although 75 of the yards the Raiders' defense gave up came on one broken-coverage, broken-tackle Carolina touchdown in the fourth quarter. Las Vegas also ran the ball for 133 yards but gave up 128 Panthers rushing yards. Finally, the Raiders won the time of possession by a 31:29 split, committed zero turnovers and only three penalties.

After going 13-3 last year, New Orleans is playing against a wins over/under of 10.5 for this season.

After going 7-9 last year, Las Vegas is playing against a wins O/U of 7.5 for this season.

On the injury front, New Orleans is now without WR Michael Thomas (149 receptions last year), after he suffered an ankle injury last week.

Saints vs. Raiders History

The all-time series between these two teams is tied at 6-6-1. Most recently, back in 2016, the Raiders pulled a 35-34 upset of the Saints at the Superdome on a touchdown and a gutsy 2-point conversion (Jack Del Rio was head coach then) with 47 seconds left.

NFL Betting Trends

  • The Saints played 7-1 both SU and ATS on the road last season.
  • The Saints played 4-2 ATS last season when favored by seven points or less.
  • The Raiders played 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS at home last season, back in Oakland with fans in the stands.
  • The Raiders played 4-1 ATS last season as dogs of between 4-6 points.
  • Favorites played 9-7 SU but 7-8-1 ATS in the NFL last week.
  • Home teams played 8-8 SU but 9-6-1 ATS in the NFL last week.
  • Home dogs played 3-4 SU and 4-2-1 in the NFL last week.

Totals Report

  • Last week's Saints game played over its total of 49 with eight minutes to spare. Last year overs played 9-7 in New Orleans games.
  • Last week's Raiders game played over its total of 48 with 12 minutes to spare. Last year under played 9-7 in Oakland games.
  • Overs played 9-7 in the NFL last week.

Saints vs. Raiders Prediction 9/21/20

The Saints produced less than 300 yards of total offense last week, and now they're without Thomas. So those 34 points they scored are a bit misleading. Meanwhile, the Raiders are now in their third season under Gruden. In his first go-around as head coach of this franchise, starting back in 1998, the Raiders played 16-16 through his first two seasons, then jumped to 12-4 and made the AFC championship game in his third. We're not saying they'll win 12 games this season, but we won't be all that surprised if they win 9-10. With that in mind, we'll take Vegas and points for our free NFL pick for Monday night.
 
Free Pick: 
Take the Raiders +5.5
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