Each week throughout the NFL season, we will provide our readers with what our team believes is the top favorite or favorites on the board. To make our NFL Favorite Pick List the team has to offer good value on the point spread line, so the majority of our plays will be in small spread favorites.
The reason the majority of our suggested plays will be in the low point spread range is the lower probability of winning but not covering the line. A team can dominate a game, but one random play can result in a seven-plus point swing in the game or, even worse, the dreaded backdoor cover. You know the scenario: the 6-point underdog trailing by 10 in the last minute of a game playing against a prevent-defense, scoring a touchdown to get the cover with seconds left on the clock.
Our NFL handicappers are not some ESPN highlights-watching weekend tipsters. The SBS team are experienced bettors whose pocketbook depends on the accuracy of their predictive outcomes on the games.
2023 Picks Record: 12-13-1 Units: -2.30
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Week 17
Jaguars -3.5
Cowboys -13.5
49ers -4
Week 17
Texans -4 (Won)
Eagles -12.5 (Lost)
Benglas +7 (Lost)
Week 16
Falcons -2.5 (Won)
Browns -3 (Won)
Broncos -7 (loss)
Week 15
Packers -3.5 (Loss)
Sure Watson out hurts with the vertical game, but the Bucs secondary is awful. The weather may be a big factor in this game as well with 40 degrees F forecast.
Week 14
San Francisco -13.5 (loss)
Yes, it's a big spread and a divisional game. However, the 49ers easily defeated the Seahawks 31-18 in Seattle in an earlier meeting this season, and now the QB situation is murky, with Geno Smith expected to be a game-time decision with a groin injury. Even if he does go, this is not the type of defense you want to face if you lack mobility. SF had six sacks in the previous meeting.
Week 13
Detroit Lions -4.5 (won)
With LG Jonah Jackson's return, Detroit's O-line, crucial for their potent run game, is at full strength—bad news for New Orleans, who just allowed 228 rushing yards to Atlanta. Despite Detroit missing MLB Anzalone and a rookie leading the defense, their matchup favors them against the Saints. Detroit's solid against the run, only struggling against mobile QBs, which Derek Carr isn't. New Orleans' weakened receiving corps, missing Shaheed and Thomas, further tilts the advantage to Detroit.
Week 12
Steelers -2.5 (Won)
The Steelers' offense looked awful last week, but that happens to lots of teams when they play the Browns. This week, they got the Bengals, who are without starting QB Joe Burrow and will have Jake Browning behind center making his first NFL start. Additionally, they will be without starting CB Cam Taylor-Britt, and WR Tee Higgins remains out.
We're also on New England -4 L and Baltimore -3 W
Week 11
San Francisco -13 Push
Games aren't played on paper, but the 49ers, when healthy, hold huge edges over the Bucs in nearly every position. It's a crazy number to lay, but it's how we're playing this game.
We're adding the Broncos -2.5. Won 21-20 but didn't cover.
Week 10
Chicago -3 (Push)
The Panthers have failed to reach 300 yards of offense in six of their eight games this season. They’ve been equally awful running the ball and passing, ranking 32nd in yards per play, 27th in passing yards per game, and 20th in rushing yards per game. They face a Bears team that was exploited through the air at times this season but keep in mind that only one time has Carolina surpassed 244 yards passing, and Andy Dalton was the starter that game. The Chicago offense has its own problems. They, like Car, have a rookie QB, Tyson Bagent, who had a rough game last week through the air against the Saints (3 INTs), but he did show his wheels again, rushing for 70 yards on eight carries. They’re expected to get back RB Kahlil Herbert, and that can only help for the league’s 4th-ranked rushing team in YPG. The Panthers ' defensive strength is the pass defense, and that’s a banged-up unit right now with starting RCB CJ Henderson and WLB Brian Burns out and both starting safeties questionable with leg issues. This may set up perfectly for some big play-action plays for the Bears.
Week 9
Green Bay -3.5 (Won)
Despite a season that hasn't met their expectations, the Packers could see a sliver of postseason hope with a victory in this game, suggesting a heightened level of determination and focus could be in play. The Los Angeles Rams, on the other hand, are facing a significant challenge if they are without their starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. His likely replacement, Brett Rypien, has not instilled fear in opposing defenses, which gives Green Bay a distinct advantage.
Green Bay's defense has been relatively robust, although their run defense has shown some vulnerabilities. However, the Rams' expected reliance on a backup quarterback could limit their offensive effectiveness, particularly through the air, allowing the Packers to potentially concentrate more on stopping the run. This adjustment could bolster Green Bay's overall defensive stance.
The sportsbooks setting the line at 3.5 points is an intriguing aspect. That extra half-point, often referred to as the "hook," is designed to make the Rams' spread more attractive to bettors. Yet, in this scenario, the hook seems to be a lure rather than a true reflection of the Rams' chances without Stafford. Considering these factors, the Packers' defensive solidity and the Rams' quarterback situation, it stands to reason that Green Bay is in a favorable position to cover the -3.5 spread. They are expected to be laser-focused and should leverage the Rams' offensive limitations to control the game and potentially win by more than the spread.
Week 8
Dallas -6.5 (Won)
The Cowboys come in rested and reasonably healthy. Dallas has played two home games this season, demolishing the Jets by 20 and the Pats by 35. We think that they can get by this number.
Week 7
Washington -3 (Lost)
This is a bet against the Giants, not for the Guardians. QB Daniel Jones is out, and three offensive lineman.
Baltimore -3 (Won)
The Ravens' offense hasn't been getting in the end zone, but they have been moving the ball well and can improve here. The Lions have played great but are playing back-to-back road games and are banged up.
Week 6
Raiders -3 (Won)
The Pats have played a lot of decent defenses this season, and they could have success against the Raiders. We're banking on that not happening.
Week 5
Titans -2.5 (Loss)
The Colts apparently will have Jonathan Taylor in the backfield this week for the first time since last December. That said, he’s coming off an ankle injury and may need a few games to have an impact. Additionally, Indianapolis will be going against one of the top-ranked run defenses that is ranked No. 1 in yards per carry and No. 4 in rushing yards allowed per game. Tennessee is 0-2 on the road this season, with their offense being the culprit, but on paper, this will be the most porous run D that they’ve faced this season.
Week 4
LA Chargers -6.5 (Loss by .5 point)
Aidan O'Connell is at QB and even against statistically one of the worst defenses this season, We're laying the points.
Week 3
Buffalo -5.5 (Won)
Some handicappers think this is a tricky game and they could be correct, but in our opinion the Bills' defense is underrated. They haven't faced the best passers, but the Guardians' Sam Howell isn't one of those either. If we score the defenses even. We can see Buffalo's offense being at least a touchdown better. It's a square play, so don't go big on this one.
Week 2
Cincinnati -3 L
The Ravens didn’t impress me at all last week. Sure, they never trailed and did win 25-9, getting the cover as a -9.5 home favorite. They lost the yardage battle, managing only 265 yards of offense to the Texans 268. This week, they hit the road to play a divisional opponent, getting only a field goal. They are expected to get TE Mark Andrews back but will be missing starting RB J.K. Dobbins and will be without their starting Center and LT, who were all hurt in the opening game. The Bengals offense looked horrible on the road against the Browns with a hobbled and rusty QB, Joe Burrow. I expect Burrow to be much better in Week 2, and he should be able to pick apart a Baltimore defense that is really banged up in the secondary.
Kansas City -3 W
The Chiefs lost a close one in their opener against a pretty good Lions club. They were playing without all-world TE Travis Kelce in Week 1who returns this week. That should be enough for them to get by a Jags team with, in my opinion, a mid-level type of defense at best.
Week 1
Chargers -3
This is based on health. The Dolphins will be without their new signee CB Jaylan Ramsey and fellow CB Justin Bethel is nowhere near 100%. The LAC offense appears to be fully healthy and should be able to outscore the Fish.
Buffalo -2.5
The Bills' defense was beaten up last season and should be much improved in 2023. On paper, they're not as deep at WR and they'll be facing a really tough unit today. That said, I'm not convinced that new Jets' QB Aaron Rodgers is going to have success against the Bills. He was only 19/30 for 203 yards last season in a 27-17 Buffalo victory.
