Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Lines, Analysis, Predictions

September 22, 8:15 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Pitt +4.5/Cle -4.5

The NFL gives us an AFC North grudge match to watch and bet Thursday night when the Steelers battle the Browns in Cleveland. Both teams opened this season with wins, but both fell to 1-1 last week. So somebody will bounce back above .500 with a victory here. Which way are we going with our free PITT/CLE pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 3 NFL betting odds opened Cleveland at -3.5 for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 40. Early betting action then bumped the Browns to -4 and dropped that total to 38.

Steelers-Browns NFL Betting Preview

Pittsburgh opened this season with that 23-20 overtime victory at Cincinnati two weeks ago but last week lost at home to New England 17-14. The Steelers fell down to the Patriots 3-0 midway through the first quarter and never led. Pittsburgh trailed 10-3 at the half and 17-6 through three quarters, pulled to within a field goal early in the fourth but could get no closer. Pittsburgh did, however, push the spread as a three-point home dog. The Steelers got out-gained by New England 376-243, out-rushed 124-91, and lost time of possession by a 34:26 split. Pittsburgh also recorded zero sacks, committed the key turnover of the game, a muffed punt that resulted in a Patriots touchdown, and let New England run the last six-plus minutes off the clock. Two weeks ago, the Steelers basically got totally out-played by Cincinnati but won the turnover battle 5-0 and the game in OT. So Pittsburgh really actually should be 0-2 on the season. Cleveland, meanwhile, opened its season with that 26-24 win at Carolina but last week blew a late 13-point lead and lost at home to the Jets - of all teams - 31-30. The Browns scored the first seven points of the game and later seemed to put the game away with a Nick Chubb touchdown with just under two minutes to go. But Cleveland then allowed New York to hit a long one for a score, then couldn’t recover an onside kick, and promptly gave up another Jets touchdown with 22 seconds left to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. The Browns out-rushed New York 184-93 and won the time of possession 32:28. They just botched the hell out of the end of that game. Two weeks ago, Cleveland out-played the Panthers almost all day, led 20-7 through three quarters, fell behind 24-23 with a minute to go but drove 35 yards to a game-winning field goal in the final seconds. So the Browns really actually could be 2-0 on the season. On the injury front, Pittsburgh will be without linebacker TJ Watt while Cleveland will be without DE Jadeveon Clowney and possibly without DE Myles Garrett.

Steelers-Browns Recent History

Pittsburgh is 4-3 in both SU and ATS over the last seven meetings in this rivalry. The Steelers also swept the season series from Cleveland last year by scores of 15-10 and 26-14. However, none of those games involved Jacoby Brissett or Mitch Trubisky, the two guys who will start at quarterback Thursday night.

NFL Betting Trends

  • The favorites are 19-12 SU but 13-18 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • The home teams are 17-14, both SU and ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 19-8-2 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 13-6 over Pittsburgh’s last 19 games, 2-0 this season.
  • The Unders played 10-7 in Browns games last season, but the overs are 2-0 this season.
  • The Unders are a lopsided 21-10 in the NFL this season.

Steelers at Browns Prediction ATS 9/22/22

Cleveland owns a big checkmark in the comparison of the running games and the better defense. And in the NFL, teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, Brissett actually looked pretty good last week, while Trubisky looks iffy. We’re betting the Brownies Thursday night, minus the points.

Free Pick: 
Take the Browns -4.5