Pittsburgh at Kansas City Wild Card Odds & Pick ATS

January 16, 8:15 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
KC -12.5

In what might be Ben Roethlisberger’s final NFL game, he leads his Steelers into Kansas City for an AFC wild-card bout with the Chiefs Sunday night at Arrowhead. Kansas City is questing for its third straight conference championship while Pittsburgh is searching for its first playoff victory since it beat the Chiefs in a divisional-round game in KC five seasons ago.

Kansas City, which just beat the Steelers handily three weeks ago, is favored by double-digits for Sunday night. How are we playing this game with our free NFL wild-card betting pick?

NFL Wild-Card Betting Lines

The NFL wild-card betting odds opened Kansas City as a 13-point favorite over Pittsburgh, with an over/under of right around 46.5. Early betting action then dipped the Chiefs to -12.5.

According to Sagarin’s NFL ratings at sagarin.com, KC should only be favored by nine points for this match-up.

Steelers-Chiefs NFL Wild-Card Betting Preview

Pittsburgh opened this season with a win at Buffalo, then lost three games in a row, albeit to fellow playoff qualifiers Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and Green Bay. The Steelers then won five in a row to reach 6-3, but a 2-4 stretch brought them to 8-7. Pittsburgh then won its last two games, including a 16-13 overtime decision at Baltimore in the regular-season finale last Sunday afternoon. The Steelers then avoided the crazy improbable and made the playoffs when the Raiders beat the Chargers in overtime Sunday night.

So Pittsburgh is back in the postseason after getting knocked out in the wild-card round by Cleveland last season.

The Steelers were in big trouble last week against the Ravens, down 10-6 with Baltimore driving late in the third quarter but turned the tide with an interception in the end zone. Later, in OT, Big Ben converted a huge 4th-down, setting up the game-winning field goal.

The Steelers got out-gained by Baltimore 381-314 and out-rushed 249-79 but won the turnover battle 3-1.

Pittsburgh actually got out-gained by seven of its last eight opponents this season and out-rushed by eight of its last ten foes. But it also won the turnover battle seven times over its last ten games.

At 9-7-1 overall, the Steelers played over their season wins over/under, which was 8.5, and entered these playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the AFC.

Kansas City, the two-time defending AFC champion, started just 3-4 this season, with a win over Philadelphia and losses to Buffalo and Tennessee. But the Chiefs, led mainly by their defense, then won eight in a row, knocking off an Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay, Las Vegas (twice), Dal-las, and this Pittsburgh team along the way. KC then blew a second-half, double-digit lead and lost at Cincinnati but bounced back to win at Denver last Saturday 28-24.

So the Chiefs are back in the playoffs for the seventh straight season, seeking their third straight trip to the Super Bowl.

Kansas City, playing as an 11-point favorite last week, actually trailed the Broncos 21-17 into the fourth quarter but kicked a field goal to get within one, then basically won the game with an 86-yard fumble return for a score.

In the end, KC ran the last five minutes off the clock to preserve the victory.

The Chiefs out-gained Denver 390-364. So Kansas City out-gained six of its last eight opponents this season,

At 12-5 overall, the Chiefs played under their season wins O/U, which was 12.5, the highest on the board, and enter these playoffs as the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

These two teams just met three weeks ago, a 36-10 Chiefs romp also at Arrowhead. Kansas City led that game 14-0 in the first quarter, 23-0 at the half, then scored the first seven points of the second half and cruised to the cover at -10.5.

KC out-gained the Steelers that day 381-303, and nearly two-thirds of the yardage the Chiefs defense gave up came in total garbage time. Kansas City also dominated time of possession by a 35:25 split and won the turnover battle 3-0.

Also, that game played over a total of 44 when Pittsburgh scored a meaningless touchdown with three minutes left.

NFL Wild-Card Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh played 2-5 both SU and ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
  • Kansas City played 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
  • Over the last six NFL wild-card rounds, the home teams are 13-13 SU, 8-17-1 ATS.
  • Over the last six NFL wild-card rounds, the favorites are 15-11 SU, 8-17-1 ATS.
  • Over the last six NFL wild-card rounds, double-digit favorites are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS.
  • Pittsburgh under Coach Tomlin is 4-3, both SU and ATS against Kansas City under Coach Reid.

Totals Report

The Under is 11-6 in Steelers games this season, which averaged 44 total points.

The Over is 10-7 in Chiefs games this season, which averaged 50 points.

Over the last six NFL wild-card rounds, the unders are 17-9.

Steelers at Chiefs Prediction ATS 1/16/22

The best unit on the field Sunday night will be the Kansas City offense. Also, while the Chiefs come in at -2 yards per game total rushing Pittsburgh comes in at -53, and that’s not good for playoff football. Also, KC owns the much better record against playoff qualifiers. Also, the Chiefs just kicked the Steelers three weeks ago. They might not win this one by four touchdowns but two would be enough. We’re giving the points here with Kansas City.
Free Pick: 
Take ther Chiefs -12