NFL Week 9 Picks

November 4, 11:39 AM EST

We bounced back last week going 2-0. In Week 9 our NFL picks include selections on the Steelers/Ravens, Falcons/Redskins and the Bears/Bills.

2018 Season Record: 12-10 ATS +1.00

Week 2: 3-1, Week 3: 2-1, Week 4: 2-1, Week 5: 2-1, Week 6: 1-3, Week 7: 0-3. Week 8: 2-0.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Total: 46.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers will try to even the score in Week 10 when they travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens on the field of M&T Stadium. The betting line for this game opened with Baltimore as a -2.5 point spread favorite with the total line listed at 46.5 points.

Team vs. Team

The Ravens won the first meeting this season with a dominate performance out-yarding the Steelers 451 -284 on the night on route to 26-14 pasting. Baltimore road a strong passing game where TEs Maxx Williams and Nick Boyle played a big role catching eight of ten targets for 87 yards. The Steelers couldn’t get their ground game going with starting RB James Conner managing a miniscule 2.1 yards per carry picking up 19 yards on nine attempts.

Recent Play

Each club has played three games since they last met with different results. Pittsburgh has been playing its best football of the season scoring victories over Atlanta, Cincinnati and Cleveland. Baltimore hasn’t played as the 1-2 record suggests getting a 21-0 win over Tennessee and losing by 1 to New Orleans before a 36-21 loss on the road in Carolina last week where they finished -3 in net turnovers.

Key Betting Trends

  • Four of the last six games between these two clubs have gone UNDER the total line.
  • In games that the Ravens finished -1 or better in net turnovers the defense has allowed 11.1 points per game.
  • The Steelers have allowed an average of 18.6 points on 278 yards per game.

Betting Forecast

The Ravens are beat up with their left tackle Ronnie Stanley and backup swing tackle James Hurst out. The Steelers are also dealing with an injury to their offensive line with RT Marcus Gilbert expected to miss his second straight game. Pittsburgh has put up an average of 34 points per game over their three game winning streak, and while they did surpass their opponents seasonal average in all three we’re not talking elite defenses. The trio includes Cleveland ranked 24th, Cincinnati 29th and Atlanta 30th in scoring defense. I believe the Ravens will continue to work their short game and the Steelers know that have get the running game going. Both eat up as lot of clock which leads me to pick on the total.

Steelers at Ravens Week 10 Pick: UNDER 46.5

Other Week 10 Game Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins

Betting Line: Redskins -2

The Falcons are 3-4 on the season and winless on the road this season losing 18-12 to the Eagles in Week 1 and were blown out by the Steelers 41-17 in Week 5. They come into this game with one of the worst defenses in the NFL allowing four of their last five opponents to amass greater than 400 yards. Atlanta faces one of top defenses in the league in Washington who at home has held every opponent to 21 or fewer points per game. The visitor is rested, but I’ll bet on a small home favorite with the better overall metrics every time.

Take the Washington Redskins -2

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills

Total: Over 38

The Bears offense has been a surprise scoring 23 or more points in all but one of their games. New Era Field can be a tough place to play with some tough weather conditions, but today’s forecast is good and should have no impact on the offenses. The Bears will be without RG Kyle Long which is big but the Bills will be without two starters from the defensive front seven including leading tackler MLB Tremaine Edwards. The Bills have the worst points per game average in the NFL scoring a meagre 10.9 points and now are forced to go back to turnover machine QB Nathan Peterman. That works to our advantage in my scoring model. Peterman is known to throw the pick 6; something he has done frequently in his short career and the Bears defense may come into this game a tad on the overconfident side. The Bills QB should be able to exploit the absence of Kahili Mack finding TE Charles Clay and LeSean McCoy to move this offense and I don’t feel that 20 points is out of the question.

Take the OVER 38