NFL Week 7 Picks

October 21, 11:25 AM EDT

It was ugly last week with the Bills shutting down the Texans, the Browns getting blown out and the Patriots losing by a hook for my first losing week. I’m battling some kind of death cold, so It’s going to be short and sweet today for our Week 7 picks.

2018 Season Record: 10-7 ATS +2.30

Week 2: 3-1, Week 3: 2-1, Week 4: 2-1, Week 5: 2-1, Week 6: 1-3

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Here are three of my top picks from the Week 7 schedule in no particular order.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Bucs -3.5
Total: 52.5

The Bucs put up 512 yards of offense last week against the Falcons but came up short in the 34-29 loss. QB Jameis Winston had a rough game with ball security throwing two INTs and fumbling twice (both recovered by TB). The offense did move the ball consistently well going 5 of 8 on third down opportunities and averaging a ridiculous 8.1 yards per play. The 29 points scored was the fourth time this season that they have scored 27 or more with only the game against the Bears tough unit as the exception. This week in come the Browns who have allowed 400 plus yards of offense in three straight. The Chargers ran all over them for 246 yards on the ground last week, and while the run game hasn't been a strength of the Buccaneers ranking near the bottom of the league in most metrics, Cleveland will be without starting MLB and leading tackler Joe Schobert.

Cleveland couldn’t get on track last week against the Los Angeles Chargers after falling behind early scoring just 14 points and failing to surpass 14 points for the second straight game. The pass protection has been dreadful allowing five sacks in each of the last two, but will now go against the Tampa Bay unit that has just 9 sacks on the season. The Bucs are also shorthanded with DT Gerald McCoy 1.5 sacks and DE Vince Curry 1.5 out today. The offensive competition that Tampa Bay has faced has been stiff, but they have not once held an opponent to fewer than 300 yards, and a disturbing statistic is their yards allowed per pass attempt ranking dead last in the NFL at 9.3 yards.

Take the OVER 52.5

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

Spread: Pick’em
Total: 41.5

The Cowboys have played well on defense allowing a second-best 17.2 yards per game and come into this game at full strength. Offensively they have looked better in recent games excluding the game against the Texans where they finished with a -2 turnover ratio. They owned the Redskins the last season easily winning by 14 at Fed Ex Field and 24 back in Dallas.

Take the Cowboys at pick’em.

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Lions -3
Total: 47

I’m not sold on turnover machine Brock Osweiler who threw two last week, but the Lions haven’t been getting the INTS this season with a team total of two. The Dolphins have a running game going for them this season and the Lions have proven to be susceptible to big runs this season. Home dogs have been golden this season.

Take the Dolphins +3