NFL Week 6 Picks

Date: 
October 14, 1:00 PM EDT

In Week 5 Rich Crew was again on the plus side finishing 2-1 against the spread with his predictions for the third straight week. Rich is back with four NFL picks from the Week 6 schedule, the Bills at Texans, Chargers at Browns, Steelers at Bengals, and Chiefs at Patriots.

2018 Season Record: 9-4 ATS +4.60

Week 2: 3-1, Week 3: 2-1, Week 4: 2-1, Week 5: 2-1

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Spread: Houston -10
Total: 40.5

The Bills have beaten two decent clubs this season, shocking the Vikings 27-6 on the road in Week 3 and getting by the Titans 13-12 in Week 5. Neither one of the wins impressed me. Buffalo got up early against an injury-depleted Minnesota who were in a classic sandwich spot coming off an overtime tie against Green Bay and having the Rams on deck. The Tennessee victory was more the Titans blown opportunities and turnovers. Like the Vikings, they were in letdown spot coming into the game off of wins over the Jaguars and the Eagles.

The Bills three losses this season have been by 44 points to the Ravens, by 11 points to the Chargers a game that they scored a meaningless TD inside of the last minute and by 22 to the Packers.

The defense overall has played decently allowing a sixth-ranked 330 yards per game and their points per game allowed is high, but it's skewed by the Week 1 blowout to the Ravens.

This week though they’ll be facing a Houston offense that is getting better each week and should be able to hit the 30’s this week if Lamar Miller can get untracked. I just don’t see Buffalo being able to keep up. The Texans have ranked the No. 1 offense in yards gained per game on the season against their last four opponents. In contrast, the Bills have yet to surpass 300 yards of offense a game and if Josh Allen is forced to pass in a trailing position this game could get ugly fast. It's a huge line, but I'm going to lay it as I forecast the Texans getting their first blowout win of the season.

Take the Houston Texans -10

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -3.5
Total: 58.5

Many of you will be looking at playing the over in this game, and that may be the way to go. Not one team has been able to stop the Chiefs No. 2 scoring offense with 35 points per game. The Patriots got offense got off to a slow start scoring 19 points per game through their first three before exploding for 38 in back to back weeks. I may put a small bet down on the OVER, but the play here for me is on New England. The Pats are getting healthier on defense, and the same can't be said for the Chiefs who are hurting at safety. Kansas City ranks dead last in the league for yards allowed per game (461 yards), and while New England's strength isn't their defense, they've averaged nearly 100 yards less per game (366 yards). Not only is the Chiefs' pass defense a problem, but the run defense has also been atrocious this season allowing four of their five opponents to run for 5.6 yards per carry or greater. I expect Belichick to concentrate on exploiting that weakness with a lot of Sony Michel today. Any success on the ground will be two faceted, keeping the ball away from Kansas City’s potent offensive unit and wearing down an already weak defensive unit.

Take the Patriots -3.5

Other games I've bet.

LA Chargers at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -1

The Chargers have offensive line issues, and the Browns could easily be 5-0 this season.

Take the Cleveland Browns -1

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati’s numbers don’t translate to their record. The Steelers have the Bengals number and come into this game off their best performance on both sides of the ball last week.

Take the Pittsburgh Steelers +1
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