NFL Week 4 Picks

Date: 
September 30, 11:14 AM EDT

The positive returns continued in Week 3 with my selections going 2-1 against the spread winning the Washington and Detroit games outright as home underdogs. I’m back in week 4 with a few more NFL ATS plays and hope to keep the winning ways going.

Week 2: 3-1 ATS
Week 3: 2-1 ATS

Jets at Jaguars

The Jets come into this game with extra rest after playing a week ago Thursday in Cleveland. They’re a respectable 1-1 on the road this season, but keep in mind that the road win in Week 1 over the Lions was misleading, with Detroit imploding in the third quarter. Last week they didn’t impress losing to the Browns. They now play the Jaguars who should be totally motivated after losing straight up at home last week to the Titans.

All things point to a Jacksonville win in this game, but a cover is a different they. They get back all-star RB Leonard Fournette which should have a significant impact on the offense that managed 21 yards on 34 carries in Week 3! The Jags will still have to deal with the loss of LT Cam Robinson, but the Jets have shown that they can be had in the running game allowing 133 or greater yards on the ground in each of their last two. Therefore, I expect the host to keep with the running game chewing up lots of clock time.

The Jets need to protect rookie QB Sam Donaldson against the ferocious pass rush of the Jaguars. The run defense of Jacksonville isn’t soft, but they have allowed two of their three opponents this season to run for over 100 yards so I would expect to see a lot of runs by Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell.

Take the UNDER 40

Bengals at Falcons

The Falcons have been exploited in the passing game in their last two allowing over 300 yards in back to back games. I don't look for that pattern to change today with the injuries three starters from the secondary on IR. The Bengals injuries at the RB position are a concern especially after their 66 rush yards last week against the Panthers. That said it’s a big step down to the stop unit of the Falcons.

Take the Cincinnati Bengals +3.5


Browns at Raiders

The Browns offense was far more productive with Baker Mayfield at the helm who gets the start today in Oakland. Mayfield took over the QBing duties in the second half against the Jets in Week 3 and looked the part of a starter completing 17 of 23 pass attempts for 201 yards in rallying the Browns to their first win in like forever.

The Raiders return home looking for their first win after back to road starts in Denver and Miami. They have yet to surpass 20 points in a game this season, but they’ve been improving each week marginally on the scoreboard and look set to cross that number today. They’ll be facing a Browns defense that has been a turnover machine with 11 takeaways in three games, but they have the feel of a team that can be had throw the air.

Take the OVER 44

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