NFL Week 13 Picks

December 2, 11:31 AM EST

This week I have three picks for NFL week 13. I have point spread picks on BAL/ATL, CAR/TB, and LAR/PITT.

In week 12 I went 4-1 getting the cover on all four ATS selections and falling short on my total play.

2018 Season Record: 21-15 ATS +5.50

Week 2: 3-1, Week 3: 2-1, Week 4: 2-1, Week 5: 2-1, Week 6: 1-3, Week 7: 0-3, Week 8: 2-0, Week 9: 2-1, Week 10: 1-1, Week 11: 2-2, Week 12: 4-1

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -2
Total: 48.5

The Falcons come into this game on a three-game losing streak, and while they aren't mathematically eliminated from the playoff race, they'd have to win out and have to hop five teams. I just don't think they'll be entirely motivated in this spot.

The Ravens have put together two straight wins to move them into the final wildcard spot and Lamar Jackson played adequately in both games as the starter. He still has a long way to go in the passing game, but that may not matter today. Jackson has run for 188 yards in the two starts and Smashing back Gus Edwards has looked great, and Ty Montgomery is now healthy and added 51 yards on eight carries last week. Baltimore will face an Atlanta defense that has been doing a better job at defending the pass in recent weeks but has been horrendous on run defense all season allowing 123.7 yards per game on a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry.

Take the Baltimore Ravens +2

Carolina Panthers at Tamp Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Panthers -3
Total: 53

It's not often that I play on a team that has lost three straight games, but that's precisely what I'm doing today. The Panthers are the team in that role. Carolina has dropped the three straight, and while they did get blown out in Pittsburgh 52-21, they were unfortunate in a 20-19 road loss to Detroit and a 30-27 defeat at home to Seattle.

The Bucs finally got a win last week breaking off a four-game losing streak with a 27-9 victory over the 49ers. The nine points allowed was the second time in their previous three games that they kept an opponent under 20 points and for those thinking that it signals an improving defense think again. San Francisco had rookie Nick Mullens behind center in that game, and the 49ers were without both starting wideouts. In the other match, TB held the Redskins to 16 points, but Washington was down to one starting offensive lineman for the game.

The Panthers come into this game with arguably their best offensive lineup since they last won which incidentally came against the Bucs. Carolina took that game at home 42-28 opening up a 35-14 halftime lead and coasting. I can’t see the winner changing in this game. It may be closer, but my money is on the visitor.

Take the Carolina Panthers -3

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -3
Total: 52

The Chargers rank 8th defensively in passing yards allowed, but for the most part, they haven't faced the most daunting passing attacks this season. In the two games when they played a team with a top-level passing attack, they allowed 38 points (Chiefs) and 35 points (Rams). That may be a red flag with them facing the Steelers with their second ranked NFL passing offense (yards per game) tonight. LAR QB Phillip Rivers has been outstanding this season spreading the ball around, but if the team's defense falters keeping pace may be a difficult task. Starting RB Melvin Gordon and his 13 TDs and 1255 offensive yards has been ruled out, and Keenan Allen may have his hands full with CB Mike Hilton who has been outstanding cover slot receivers this season.

Take the Pittsburgh Steelers -3