NFL Moneyline Picks

That’s right. We’re going to give out weekly NFL money line picks. The NFL money line is often overlooked by handicappers based on the high lines that you have to lay on the favored team. Rookie bettors have blown out their bankrolls backing the -300 “can’t lose” favorite. Our approach for the most part is the polar opposite backing mostly dogs and in rare situations we’ll give out a pick on a small favorite.  

Here’s some math to consider. A -3 point spread favorite will correlate to a -155 favorite on the money line depending on the sportsbook. The underdog at +3 would be a +135 favorite on the money line. A bettor taking the favorite in this scenario over a 100 game span with a winning percentage of 60% would be down two units over the sample size based on a uniform wager. A bettor who did the opposite winning 45% of his ML underdog wagers over a 100 game span would be up 0.75 Units.

Our prognosticators have many seasons under their belt and while every week won’t show a profit, rest assured that this team will be giving it their all. We’ll have good and bad weeks throughout the NFL season, but it would be in your best interest to play our predictions throughout the season, because in the end we expect the returns to be profitable.  

2018 Picks Record: 9-11-0 Units: +5.35

Weekly NFL ML picks are available throughout the week with most of the plays being posted on Friday through to Sunday morning.

WildCard

We considered the Colts yesterday butn decided to take a pass. We could take the Ravens here but we're using them in our top favs against the spread selections.

Week 17

Nothing interests us today so we're taking a pass.


Week 16

This week we're on the Seattle Seahawks +115 W and the Raiders +130 W.


Week 15

We like the value on Dallas +155 L, and Oakland +158 L today where we could go 1-1 and still show a nice profit.


Week 14

It's not the best spot playing back to back on the road, but the Vikings have the run defense to shut down the Seahawks and should be highly motivated in a must win game for them. Take Minnesota +145 L.


Week 13

Bills QB Josh Allen's mobility might be able to get them over the top against the Dolphins porous run stop unit. Take Buffalo + 170 L.


Week 12

The Eagles may step up at home and get the win, but the value is with the Giants at +190 L.


Week 11

We like the Broncos +260 W this week.


Week 10

We're going to take the Bills +260 W and the NY Giants +165 W.


Week 9

We're going to go with the Browns +325 L to shock the Chiefs and the Steelers +108 W to get by their divisional rival Ravens.


Week 8

The Bucs are beat up on defense, but they have a ton of weapons and can outscore the Bengals in this spot. Take Tampa Bay +170 L


Week 7

We're going to go with the Miami Dolphins +140 L today and the NY Giants +170 L on Monday night.


Week 6

Our team says to take the Bucs at +145 L to get the money versus the Falcons on the road this week and likewise for the Steelers at +108 W.


Week 5

We're going to take the Lions +105 W to best their divisional rival Packers and the Jaguars to give the Chiefs their first loss of the season at +138 L.


Week 4

If the Bengals can get their running game going they can easily take this game. Take the Bengals +170. W


Week 3

Crew says to take the Redskins. Play Washington +120* W

*Note: We had Washington listed as +3 but that was an obvious error with this being a moneyline pick. 


Week 2

Nothing stands out for us this week.


Week 1

The Bengals haven’t been road warriors as of late with a 5-11 straight up mark on the road over the last two campaigns but stand out here against a Colts team dealing with offensive line issues. Take the Cincinnati +102 W



2017 Picks Record: 9-7-0 Units: +4.77

Week 16

We're going with Cincinnati who are getting some players back on defense. Bengals +160 W


Week 15

We're going to take a shot on Oakland. Dallas is dealing with some injuries on defense and we think that if Oakland can get their running game going they can get the outright win. Play on the Raiders +140 L. Bad Beat!


Week 14

We're going with the Browns +130 L and San Francisco +108 W today.


Week 13

We're passing this week.


Week 12

We're going to go against the Seahawks again and back the 49ers at big plus money. Play on the 49ers +245 L


Week 11

We're taking Atlanta to get the win over a beat up Seattle team. Play on the Falcons +105 W


Week 10

We're going to go with the Bills who should rebound nicely after their dismal performance last Thursday. Play on the Bills +113 L


Week 9

Baltimore at Tennessee

The Ravens can exploit the Titans weaknesses and I'm not sure that the Titans can do likewise in the passing game. Play the Ravens +155 L

Also going with the Miami Dolphins to get the home win over the Raiders who haven't impressed. The Dolphins defense can keep them in this game and the injury-riddled defense of the Raiders is a far step down from the Ravens that they met last week. Play on the Dolphins +145 L


Week 8

Carolina at Tampa Bay

The Bucs statistically rank near the bottom in many pass defense stats. They come into this game extremely thin at the corner position with starter Brent Grimes ruled out as well as back-up Robert McClain. Play the Panthers +108 W


Week 7 <

Carolina at Chicago

I’m still not sold on the Panthers. The Eagles defense has Cam and the gang in disarray and I believe the Bears can do the same to them this week. We’ll need Chicago rookie QB Mitch Trubisky to keep the ball safe and any progression from last week would be a bonus. Carolina all-world MLB Luke Keuchly gives this additional value. Play on the Chicago Bears +135 W


Week 6

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

We feel that the O-Line issues that the Chiefs have and the swarming defense of the Steelers can keep the scoring down for KC leaving them ripe for an upset win by Pittsburgh. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers +175 W.


Week 5

Passing this week.

Week 4

Tennessee at Houston

We think that the lines maker got this wrong. The Texans won last season versus the Titans with Osweiller at QB and they arguably have an upgrade this go around. They’re getting healthier and are our play here. Play on Houston +123 W.


Week 3

Ravens vs. Jaguars

We think that Jags are undervalued in this spot. They’re experienced playing these overseas games and could easily step up and get the outright win here. Play on the Jags +150 W.


Week 2

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts

The loss of Cards' RB David Johnson is huge making the Colts in their home opener a solid value play. Play on Indy +255 L in OT


Week 1

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions

The Lions played well at home last season getting the “W” in six of their sight games. Detroit has both top RB options available for this game something they had for only six quarters last season. An upgraded on offensive line in the offseason may lead the way to a break out season for RB Ameer Abdullah. Play on the Detroit Lions + 118 W


2016 Picks Record: 13-10-0 Units: +8.85

Week 17

No plays this week.


Week 16

Week 16 Suggested Money Line Wagers : Indianapolis +185 Lost


Week 15

Week 15 Moneyline Bets: Cincinnati +158 Lost


Week 14

Week 14 Moneyline Bets: San Diego -105 Lost and Buffalo +130 Lost and Rams +195 Lost.


Week 13

Week 13 Moneyline Plays: Indianapolis -130 Won.


Week 12

Week 12 Money Line Picks: Tampa Bay +210 Won


Week 11

Week 11 Money Line Picks: Buffalo Bills +130. Won


Week 10

Week 10 Money Line Picks: Los Angeles Rams -105. Won


Week 9

Week 9 Money Line Picks: Tennessee +170 Lost  and Indianapolis +255 Won.


Week 8

Week 8 Money Line Picks: Cleveland +120 Lost


Week 7

Week 7 Money Line Picks: Miami +120 and Tampa Bay -105. More plays may be added up until 12 PM ET on Sunday.


Week 6

Week 6 Money Line Picks: Jaguars +115 Won, Rams +140 Lost, Miami +275 Won and Atlanta + 220 Lost.


Week 5

Week 5 Moneyline Picks: Sorry no analysis. Houston +225 Lost and Tennessee +155. Won


Week 4

Nothing appeals to us from a value stand point this week. There is always a chance that we may add something after the inactives come out late Sunday morning.


Week 3

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

The Chargers have played well enough to win in both games losing only in overtime to the Chiefs in Week 1. Indianapolis hasn’t and they fully deserve to be 0-2 on the season. That said, we’re going to back the Colts here. If you thought last season was bad on the injury front for San Diego, this one is worse. After just two games they’ve lost their best WR Kennan Allen, pass catching RB Danny Woodman for and extensive period of time and their top TE Antonio Gates is doubtful for Week 3. They just don’t have many weapons left. WR Travis Benjamin stepped up last week with six catches for 115 yards but you’d have to think that with the return of shut down corner Vontae Davis to the roster that he should be able to limit the damage. QB Andrew Luck has been listed as questionable all week, but he practiced in full on Friday and should be good to go. Luck threw for 368 in Week 1 last time at Lucas Oil Stadium and we expect numbers in that range this week against a defense that has allowed over 300 aerial yards in both games this season. Play on the Indianapolis Colts -120Won 26-22


Week 2

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

The Packers will be playing back to back games on the road. They were fortunate to come away with the 27-23 victory last week against the Jaguars who out-yarded them in the loss. The Vikings had their defense come up big for two scores in their 25-16 road win over the Titans. The offense struggled with Shaun Hill at the helm who completed just 18 of 33 pass attempts for 236 yards against an average Tennessee defense. In steps QB Sam Bradford to take over which should be a big step up from Hill. Bradford looked really good over the last third of the season in Philly making smart decisions and hitting all of his throws. He’ll face a defense that will be without arguably their best corner this week and should be able to do enough in the Vik’s opener to help them secure a win in their home opener. Play on the Minnesota Vikings + 110Won (17-14)


Week 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Line: Bucs +115 Falcons -135

The Bucs won both meetings last season including a 23-20 victory in Atlanta as an 8-point dog. Tampa Bay comes into this game pretty healthy, but that’s not the case for the Atlanta. The Falcons are beat up in the secondary with CB Jalen Collins suspended and starting strong safety Keanu Neal out and his back up Kemal Ishmael questionable. Key Stat: The Buccaneers had a league leading 69 starts by rookies last season, so an improvement over last season is a logical expectation. The value is on the road team here.
Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +115 Won (31 -24)