NFL Handicapping Basics
There are some key aspects you should look for when you bet on the NFL.
The Rebound Game
Betting on a team to rebound is a basic aspect of sports betting not just on the NFL. Teams that are not playing well recently are a solid wager to make on their next game. You should find teams that were beat by a significant amount of points in their previous game and by significant by around 10 points against the spread (ATS). Now find a team that is not in good form playing a team that is playing well, as they won their last game ATS by 10 points or more. The smallest spread when you find this game would be 20 points, the solid team winning by 10 ATS and their struggling team losing by 10 points ATS. The bigger the difference he better the wager will be for you. This is not margins of winning and loser, but instead point spread margins and if they covered or not.
Betting Against the Grain
In this aspect you find team that either lost big or won big in their last game and the point spread does not matter. You can bet against the team that won big in their last game this week they are favored to win. Also, look for teams that were crushed in their last game and are underdogs this week. A smart bet would be to wager on the team that was crushed in their previous game and were the favorites and this week they are the underdog. A key to sports betting is finding value bets and betting against the grain may give that to you. Betting against the public, which is how this aspect tends to go, will give you a better payout with better spreads.
High Flying Offenses Take a Day Off Too
The betting public generally likes to bet on teams that have offenses that can light up the scoreboard. It can be a good idea to bet against a team with a slid offense if they have scored a lot of points in their last couple of games if they are favored by a considerable margin in the next game they play. Many times teams cannot keep scoring tons of points for several games in a row, so you can take advantage of that.
The Best Offense is a Good Defense
Obviously, teams that have good offenses are more fun to watch, but defense wins. If you find a game where a team with a good offense plays a team with a stingy defense, you may want to bet on the team that has the solid defense, as they tend to win more often.
Betting the Streak
Look for teams that are on a streak whether it be a winning one or a losing one. It is basic, bet against teams that have won at least 3 games in a row and bet on teams that have lost at least 3 games in a row. Betting the underdog will always give you better profits, so when you find an underdog bet that seems like a good bet to you, you should jump on it.
Stay Away from the Revenge Factor
Revenge is more of a factor in the college game rather then the pro game. Revenge is not a typical motivating factor in the pro game, so leave revenge games for when you bet on NCAA football.
The Fast Start
Try to find teams that have started the season on fire winning their first 5 or 6 games. When that team loses it may be a good idea to bet against them in the following game. Teams can lose following their first loss because they have a bad game or the other team is simply better. However, many times they lose because they are out of sync and are still thinking about their last game. No matter what the situation is this is a tried and true betting angle that works more often then not.
Go For the Home Underdog
Betting on the home underdog is one of the more popular sports bets not matter what the sport. However, you should know that betting on the home dog is a 50/50 proposition. Betting on the home dog is better to do when a team is playing their second consecutive game at home after losing the last game on their field.
Beware of Betting on the Pre-Season
This aspect is pretty basic, as you should avoid betting on pre-season football. The starting players will not play much, as the pre-season is a time for coaches to look at other players and see how they can help their team. Do you want to bet on backup players to win you your money? Obviously, no, so do not bet on the pre-season.
The Spoiler Factor
Teams that are not going to make the playoffs play the role of spoiler for teams that have to win to get to the post season. The public mostly bets on the team that has to win, but it may be a good idea to bet on the spoiler team that really has nothing to play for, as they are more relaxed and they will throw the ball more often and take more chances.
New Coaches on the Road
There is a learning curve when a new coach comes in. There will be a new offense and it takes a while for the QB to learn that offense. This can be trouble for teams having a new coach and hitting the road, especially if the QB is a rookie or first or second year starter. The QB is the most important position on the football field and the QB and head coach have to be on the same page and if the marriage is in the honeymoon between the two beware of betting on those games.