If you’re looking for our NFL dog of the week picks, you’ve landed on the right page. Each week throughout the pro football season, we’ll give out one to three of our top underdog plays. Our team of handicappers digs deep into the numbers and the injury reports, looking for the games where we believe that we hold an edge over the lines maker. So rest assured, these are not some; throw a dart against the board and hope for the best. These are highly researched opinions against the spread that we believe give our visitors a great chance to pad their bankrolls. Bookmark this page and return throughout the week as we add additional suggested wagers.
2023 NFL Dog of the Week Picks Record W/L 19-13-1 Units +4.70
We'll start posting our underdog ATS predictions in the afternoon of Thursday, Sept 7. Keep in mind that we may add suggested wagers up until 12:30 PM ET on Sunday of each week.
Get a free $60 worth of professional sports picks.
Start Winning Today!
Week 18
Falcons +3
The Falcons are going with Desmond Ridder due to Taylor Heinicke's injury. Ridder had a rough game in the earlier meeting, and they still won, so in theory, we don't need a big game from him to win. The Saints will be without their best RB Alvin Kamara.
Week 17
NY Giants +6.5 (Won)
Week 16
Panthers +3.5 (won)
Week 15
Jets +7 (Loss)
Titans -3.5 (Loss)
We just don't see the Texans doing enough on offense with Case Keenum, behind center, and the defense doesn't have the teeth to stop the Titans.
Week 14
Chicago +3 (Won)
In the last meeting, the Bears led throughout and then fell apart late to fall to the Lions. We don't think that will happen this time around at home. They're rested coming off of their bye week and this is their last home against a division rival, so the motivation should not be lacking.
Buffalo +1.5 (Won)
The Bills are not out of it yet and face a Chiefs team that has been underwhelming this campaign on the offensive side of the ball and will be without their starting RB, Isaiah Pacheco, this week. Buffalo also gets back TE Dawson Knox and on paper, has the best TE combo in the league.
Week 13
Washington +9.5 (Lost)
The Dolphins won by 21, but they didn't look that good doing it. They got a 99-yard pick 6 and a late TD when the Jets packed it in after an onside kick. The Commanders have lost eight games this season, but four were by one score.
Carolina +3.5 (Won)
The Panthers may find a passing game in Tampa today and should be able to keep this close. Neither team has been putting up points. In a game that looks like it can come down to a field goal, getting the extra hook appears to be the prudent way to go.
Week 12
No analysis this week. We're going with the Carolina +3.5 L, Cleveland +1.5 L, Buffalo + 3 Push and Chicago +3 W
Week 11
Cardinals +6 Won
The Cards QB Kyler Murray returned in Week 10 (first game TY) and led the team to a 25-23 home win over the Falcons. Their first win in seven games. His stat line wasn’t great, completing 19 of 32 passes and throwing for 249 yards. He wasn’t great, but it was the second-highest passing total by Arizona this season. This week, they’ll face one of the weakest pass defenses in the league, 31st in completion percentage and 25th in yards per attempt, and Murray could very easily improve off of last week’s numbers. Houston’s offense finally found a run game last week, but I think it was more of an outlier than a move forward. The Texans have relied on the arm of rookie CJ Stroud for the most part this campaign, and he’ll be facing a decent secondary this week, so I don’t think that they pull away here. I think Houston finds itself in a battle throughout.
We're also adding Packers +3 W, Titans +6.5 L, Bears + 7.5 W and Steelers +2.5 L.
Week 10
We are adding Jax +3 (L), Ten +3 (L) (buy up if you can't find a +3), Was +6 (W), and Den +7 (W). (posted 12:30 PM)
Browns +6.5 (Won)
The Browns have lost three games this season, with two of the losses being by fewer points than the Week 10 line, losing by two at Pittsburgh and by four at Seattle. They head to Baltimore to battle the Ravens, who smoked Cleveland on the road earlier this season 28-3. The Browns couldn’t muster any offense in that game, with 166 combined yards. D. Thompson-Robinson got the start at QB, and he was dreadful, passing for 121 yards, going 19 for 36 with three INTs. They’ll have Deshaun Watson this time around, and while he certainly didn’t torch the Cardinals' secondary (19 of 30 for 219 yards, he did throw two TD passes, which is one more than the backup crew amassed in the four games that he started or played fewer than a few minutes. The Browns' defense played well in the Week 4 28-3 loss, and I believe that with Watson back and a three-prong RB set up, they can make this close and cover the spread and may even get the outright win.
Week 9
Minnesota +3.5 (Won)
Taylor Heinicke is stepping in as the starting quarterback for Atlanta in their upcoming game. Their key wideout, Drake London, won't be hitting the field this time around. The team has shown strong form at home, boasting a 3-1 record, and in their singular home loss, they still managed to outgain Washington by a significant margin (402 to 193 yards). However, that game was marred by a -3 turnover differential, which proved costly.
On the flip side, the Minnesota Vikings have mirrored Atlanta's record on the road, also at 3-1. Their victories, though, came against teams that aren't particularly dominant this season—Carolina, Chicago, and Green Bay. Despite the level of competition, Minnesota's defense has been commendable, holding opponents to 13 points or less in those wins. Note that the Viks will be going with rookie QB Jaren Hall after losing Kirk Cousins for the season. Hall is known for being super-chill, so we don't expect him to be flustered. Does he have the skill set? We'll find out today.
Anticipating the upcoming clash, I expect a gritty game dominated by defensive prowess, likely to be decided by a mere field goal. This leads me to favor the Vikings, particularly with the advantage of receiving points in this matchup.
Carolina +2.5 (Lost)
With the current state of the Colts' defense, the Panthers stand a solid chance of covering the spread in this matchup. Indianapolis's vulnerability in the secondary, further weakened by injuries to key players like Dallis Flowers earlier and now JuJu Brents could be a decisive factor. The absence of Zaire Franklin, their middle linebacker and a pivotal figure in their defensive lineup, casts another shadow over their defensive resilience, especially since he's been central to their tackling efforts.
On offense, while Gardner Minshew has been performing adequately for the Colts, the Panther's defense might capitalize on the weakened opposing offensive line to apply pressure and contain their scoring. If the Panthers can execute an effective offensive strategy against this compromised Colts defense, they could not only keep the game close but potentially take the lead and maintain it.
Considering these elements—the Colts' defensive injuries and the Panthers' opportunity to exploit these weaknesses—it's reasonable to predict that the Panthers could beat the point spread. With the Colts' defense struggling, the Panthers' offense may find the rhythm they need to outscore and thus secure a point spread victory..
Week 8
Las Vegas +8 (Loss)
The Raiders get back their starting QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, and have the pass defense to keep this game close throughout.
Week 7
Steelers +3.5 (Won)
The Steelers are coming off a bye and get their top receiving threat, WR Deontae Johnson, back after missing a handful of weeks. Additionally, this may be the weakest defense they have faced this season.
Week 6
Indy +4 (Loss)
The Colts run game came alive last week, and it wasn't even Jonathan Taylor that did the damage, rumbling for 193 yards. The Jags' run defense has been stout, but Jonathan Taylor should be better each, and with Zack Moss exploding for 165 yards last week, that's a tough combo to stop. If the Indy run game can get established, QB Gardner Minshew can have a lot of success with play-action. Jacksonville is returning from two nice wins in England and maybe a bit full of themselves to run away with this. The four points should be golden.
Week 5
Saints +1.5 (Won)
Until last week’s 26-9 blowout loss to the Bucs, the Saints were a point away from being unbeaten this season. They’ll look to get back on track against a Pats club that is really beat up on defense. RB Alvin Kamara returned last week and was effective with 51 rushing yards and 13 catches for 33 yards. He should be better this week with that game under his belt. The same goes for QB Derek Carr, who should be feeling a bit better being another week since his shoulder injury.
Week 4
Rams +1 (Won)
The Rams catch the Colts in a potential bounce-type situation after the upset win on the road last week. Indy’s rookie QB Richardson returns at this point in his career. That may be a downgrade from Minshew.
Bears +3.5 (Won)
Sure, you never want to overplay last week’s result, but a team allowing 70 points who have been decimated by injuries is on the road laying more than a FG? Chicago should be able to get some decent yardage on the ground and we believe could win this outright.
Week 3
Indy + 8 at Ravens (Won outright)
Baltimore is really beat up on defense, missing their free safety, two cornerbacks, and two linebackers. The offensive line isn’t much better with their starting left tackle and center out. They've had an easy go of it playing against a rookie QB in Week 1 and immobile QB Joe Burrow (soft tissue issue) in Week 2. The Colts Gardner Minshew gets the start with rookie starter Anthony Richardson out with a concussion. Minshew was good last week against the Texans and should have some success against the Ravens' depleted defense.
Week 2
Tennessee +2.5 Won
Week 1
Houston +9.5 Lost
I'd consider buying the half-point here, but it's expensive. The Ravens will be without their best corner Marlon Humpries and fellow CB Damarion Williams. If CJ Stroud can get any time behind a makeshift line, I think there will be opportunities there. He didn't run much at Ohio State, but I spent some time watching him in preseason and his footwork is pretty good and should be able to buy some time.
