New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts Odds & Pick

November 4, 8:20 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
NYJ +10.5/Ind -10.5

It's not quite a rematch of Super Bowl III, but it is the Colts and Jets doing battle on this week's edition of NFL Thursday night football betting. Indianapolis is playing in some tough luck this season, losing twice already in overtime, while New York isn't sure who its quarterback of the future is.

The Jets became the first double-digit underdog to win a game outright in the NFL this season last week, and they’re getting double-digits for this game, too. Which way are we going here with our free Week 9 pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 9 NFL betting odds opened Indianapolis as a 14-point favorite for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 45. Early betting action then dropped that line 3.5 points to -10.5 and bumped that total a point and a half to 46.5.

Jets Betting Preview

New York is 2-5 on the season after shocking Cincinnati at home last week 34-31. The Jets, play-ing with their backup quarterback, took an early 7-0 lead but trailed 17-14 at the half. New York later trailed 31-20 midway through the fourth quarter but scored twice in one minute to take the lead and hung on from there for the out-right victory as an 11-point underdog.

The Jets out-gained the Bengals 511-318, which helped overcome three turnovers, and won the time of possession by a 36:24 split.

But last week was actually the first time in five games New York out-gained or out-rushed an opponent.

Two weeks ago, the Jets lost to New England 54-13, and three weeks ago, they lost to Atlanta 27-20, after falling behind 20-3 in the first half.

At 2-5, New York isn't really in the playoff hunt; it's just looking to make some progress, even with QB Mike White making just his second NFL start.

More Picks: Denver at Dallas Week 9 Pick

Colts Betting Preview

Indianapolis, meanwhile, is 3-5 on the season after falling at home to Tennessee last week 34-31 in overtime. The Colts actually jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the Titans and led 17-14 at the half. Indy later fell down 31-24 with a minute and a half to go, tied the game with a touchdown with 20 seconds left but lost it on OT on a turnover and a Tennessee field goal. The Colts got out-gained by the Titans 340-307 and lost the turnover battle 3-2, resulting in a -10 points differential. Prior to last week, Indianapolis had out-gained three of its previous four opponents and out-rushed each of its last four foes. Two weeks ago, the Colts won at San Francisco 30-18; just before that, they beat Houston 31-3; just before that, they blew a 25-9 fourth-quarter lead and lost to Baltimore in overtime 31-25; and just before that they beat Miami 27-17. So after losing its first three games this season, Indy is 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS its last five times out, and actually should own a five-game winning streak. At 3-5, the Colts are in big trouble in the AFC South race, but they're also only a game and a half back of the 4-3 Chargers in the battle for the seventh and last AFC playoff spot.

These two teams just met back in September of last season, a 36-7 Indianapolis victory. Philip Rivers quarterbacked the Colts that day against Sam Darnold for the Jets. Indy covered as a 12-point favorite, and the game played under a total of 44.

NFL Betting Trends

Home teams are just 56-63 SU, 51-67 ATS in the NFL this season. Favorites are 74-48 SU but only 54-67 ATS in the NFL this season. Double-digit favorites are 14-1 SU, 8-6 ATS in the NFL this season.

Over the last season plus, Thursday night, home teams are just 10-12 SU, 6-16 ATS. However, that sounds like a trend overdue for a correction.

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Totals Report

  • Overs are 4-3 in Jets games this season, which are averaging 46 total points.
  • Overs are 5-3 in Colts games this season, which are averaging 48 points.
  • The Under is 66-54 in the NFL this season.

New York put on a big performance last week in upsetting Cincinnati, but in our book, that just makes the Jets great candidates for a letdown in this spot. Also, New York is getting out-rushed by 39 yards per game. Indianapolis, meanwhile, is out-rushing opponents by 13 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. So we're betting the Colts here, minus the points.   

Free Pick: 
Take Indianapolis -10.5