New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Pick
It looks like the Ezekiel Elliot saga ended just in time for him to play in the Cowboys' season-opening
NFC East battle against the rival Giants Sunday afternoon down at JerryWorld. Early betting action on this game leaned slightly toward New York, but that might change, now that Zeke's back. But can he be a game-changer right away? And how are we betting this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 1's NFL betting odds opened Dallas at -7.5 over New York, with an over/under of 46. Early betting action then dropped the Cowboys to -7 and the total to 45.
Giants vs. Cowboys Set-Up
New York finished 5-11 straight-up last season, its first under Coach Shurmur, although 8-7-1 against the spread. The Giants lost eight games by one score or less, five by a field goal or less. Consequently, they proved to be an underrated bet. And actually, New York only got out-gained by a per-game margin of 371-356.
Over the off-season, the Giants parted ways with a couple-three players of note, including that OBJ guy, but they're hoping that "addition by subtraction" theory might kick in.
For the moment Eli Manning is still the starting quarterback for New York, with rookie Daniel Jones waiting for his chance, which could come at any moment.
The Giants will play this season against a total wins over/under of six.
Dallas, meanwhile, finished 10-6 last season (7-7-2 ATS), made the playoffs, beat Seattle in a wild-card game but lost in the divisional round to the Rams in Los Angeles 30-22. The task for this team now becomes taking the next step, and at least making the NFC championship game.
On the season the Cowboys out-gained opponents by a per-game average of 344-335.
Over the off-season, the Cowboys basically stayed pat, personnel-wise. This big news out of Dallas right now, of course, is the return of Elliot, who missed all of pre-season in a contract dispute. But how much will he play Sunday? And will he be effective? As of this writing, we don't know.
The Cowboys will play this season against a wins O/U of nine.
Giants-Cowboys Recent History
Dallas owns four-game winning streak in this rivalry, including a 4-0 run ATS, sweeping the season series the last two years. Last year the Cowboys beat New York 20-13 up at MetLife Stadium in a game that mattered in September, then won 36-35 at home in a Week 17 game that didn't.
NFL Betting Trends
Dallas is 79-62 SU but only 66-70-5 ATS in eight-plus seasons under Coach Garrett. However, the Cowboys are also 3-2-1 ATS the last six times that they've been favored by seven points or more.
New York, as mentioned above, is 5-11 SU but 8-7-1 ATS under Coach Shurmur. The Giants are also 6-1 ATS their last seven times out as dogs of seven points or more.
- Overs finished 9-7 in Giants games last season, which averaged 49 total points.
- Unders played 9-7 in Cowboys games last season, which averaged 42 points.
- Unders are 5-1 over the last six Giants-Cowboys games, which averaged just 37 points, even with that Week 17 shootout previous season.
- Get more details: Giants at Cowboys NFL Match-up Stats
Giants at Cowboys Prediction 09/08/19
It's hard to tell how the Elliot situation will affect Dallas; he could come out gangbusters and carry this team, or he could play sparingly and/or be ineffective. We just don't know. But we do know that New York was a better team last year than its record would indicate, and it played the Cowboys tough twice last season. We expect this one to be close, too, so we're taking the Giants and the points for our free NFL pick.