New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Point Spread Pick - Odds - Free NFL Prediction
In one of the bigger matchups of the season on Thursday Night Football, the 9-3 New Orleans Saints and the 7-5 Atlanta Falcons battle it out in a key showdown with major playoff implications in the jumbled NFC South, Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium is set for 8:25 p.m. (ET) with NBC carrying the national broadcast.
New Orleans at Atlanta Game Overview
New Orleans took a firmer grip on the top spot in the NFC South title race with Sunday’s 31-21 victory over 8-4 Carolina as a 5.5-point home favorite. This was one week after its extended eight-game winning streak came to an end in a road loss to the Los Angeles Rams both straight-up and against the spread. The Saints are now 7-5 ATS on the year with the total going OVER in seven of their first 12 games. They have gone 4-2 ATS on the road this season.
Behind Drew Brees and an offense that is third in the league in both passing and rushing yards, New Orleans is also third in points scored with an average of 29.4 points per game. The duo of Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara has been a double threat both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield. One of the biggest reasons for the Saints’ success this season has been the elevated play of a defense that is 12th in the NFL in both yards and points allowed.
The Falcons’ recent three-game winning streak both SU and ATS came to an end on Sunday in a 14-9 loss to Minnesota as slight two-point favorites at home. The total stayed way UNDER the closing 48.5-point total line in that game after going OVER in three of their previous five contests. Atlanta is now 5-7 ATS this season with an even 3-3 mark ATS on its home field. It has gone 4-6 ATS in 10 games closing as a favorite.
Matt Ryan leads a Falcons’ offense that is eighth in the league in average yards gained (365.2) while averaging 22.8 PPG. Devonta Freeman is the team’s leading rusher with 589 yards and five scores on 128 carries followed closely by Tevin Coleman with 561 yards on the ground. Julio Jones has been Ryan’s top target in the passing game with 68 receptions for 1,063 yards and three touchdown catches.
New Orleans at Atlanta Game Betting Trends
- The Saints have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 15 games.
- The Falcons have failed to cover in six of their last nine games, but they have a SU 13-6 record over their last 19 games played. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last nine contests.
- Head-to-head in this NFC South showdown, Atlanta has a 4-2 SU edge in the last six meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in six of the Falcons’ last eight home games against their bitter division rival.
New Orleans at Atlanta Free Game Prediction
Thursday night’s matchup should be a good one with so much on the line for both teams. This division race looks like it is going right down to the wire between the top three teams in the NFC South so my automatic lean in this one is towards the home team. Atlanta needs this one just a little bit more and I think that will be reflected in the final score with a SU win that covers the tight 1.5-point spread.