New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Pick - Odds and NFL Betting Predictions

January 20, 6:40 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Kansas City -3

The Kansas City Chiefs (13-4) and New England Patriots (12-5) will lock horns with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line when the two square off in the AFC Conference Championship on Sunday, January 20th, 2019 at 6:40 PM ET. The game will be televised on CBS for national audiences. These two teams met earlier this year on Monday Night Football in a high-profile clash in Foxboro that was settled by just a field goal. The final tally in the previous meeting between the two sides October was New England edging Kansas City in a shootout by a margin of 43-40. KC got the narrow cover as a 3.5-point underdog.

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New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Overview

New England Patriots

The Patriots enter in off a blowout win of the Los Angeles Chargers last week in the AFC Divisional Round when they hosted the Bolts in Foxboro. The Chargers saw a lot of public action and as a result, closed as a 3.5-point underdog. New England defeated Los Angeles 41-28 to get the cover but led by as much as 31 points before they called off the dogs in preparation for this contest.

Kansas City Chiefs

Like their counterparts, Kansas City also enters in off a dominant performance when they hosted the AFC South wildcard Indianapolis Colts last Saturday. Mirroring what we saw in the New England-Los Angeles collision, the Colts came in as the public choice closing as a four-point underdog at the final bell. Kansas City would foster an easy cover in a 31-13 victory at Arrowhead Stadium.

Reasons to Avoid Under

There has been a lot of discussion into the weather affecting the offensive operations in this fixture, and as a result, we have already seen the market begin to diminish from the open as the present Over/Under is 1.5 points less than its opening figure of 57. Already a line move such as this sucks the value of the affair and compels action the other way regarding equity. However, it goes beyond just that. A common thread of conversation is the arctic temperatures slowing down both offenses. However, Kansas City and New England played in bitter environs last week and still scored 72 points combined. It is a fallacy that colder weather lowers scoring as a whole, especially concerning teams that are accustomed to playing in frigid conditions such as these two outfits.

Reasons to Back Over

Earlier this year we saw these two teams combine for 83 points in what was an offensive spectacle. A similar situation should emerge here as neither team, in particular, are known for their defensive acumen. However, Kansas City, in particular, defines the term basketball team on turf as they own the best offense in the NFL in terms of total offense averaging 425.6 total yards per game while sitting 31st in the league in total defense (405.5 yards per outing). New England’s offense sits fifth in total offense (393.4 yards per game) and will undoubtedly take advantage of the Chief’s notoriously porous defense. However, KC likes to win typically in high-scoring affairs, and thus it should be no different here given the match-up.

Patriots at Chiefs Total Prediction 01/20/2019

This game will likely be settled on the final possession. One can expect to see a lot of scoring here by virtue of quick strike drives predominantly through the air. This game should see both teams eclipse the 30-point threshold and as a result, puts the Over at the current number is well within reach.

Free Pick: 
Take Over 55.5

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