New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts Free Pick ATS

December 18, 8:15 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Ind -2.5

Former divisional and playoff rivals provide us with what should be a great game to watch and
bet when the Patriots take in the Colts Saturday night in Indianapolis. New England, following a
2-4 start to this season, has won its last seven games in a row. The Colts, meanwhile, after
starting 0-3, are 7-3 since. And both would make the playoffs if the postseason started today.
Indy is lined as a very short home favorite for this game. Who do we like here for our free NFL
betting pick?

Patriots-Colts NFL Betting Lines

The Week 15 NFL betting odds opened Indianapolis as a 1.5-point favorite for Saturday night,
with an over/under of right around 44. Early betting action then bumped the Colts to -2.5, and that total to 45.5.

Patriots Betting Preview

New England rides a seven-game winning streak into Saturday after beating Buffalo in the cold
two weeks ago 14-10. The Patriots then enjoyed last week off.

New England took the lead for good on the Bills with a long touchdown run 10 minutes into the
game, led 11-7 at the half, let Buffalo get within 11-10 in the third quarter but held on from there
for the outright victory as a three-point dog.

The Patriots, throwing the ball just three times all game, out-rushed the Bills 222-99. And the
only touchdown Buffalo scored came thanks to a muffed punt by New England deep in its own

So the Patriots have now out-gained each of their last five opponents and out-rushed four of their
last five foes. They’ve also allowed a total of just 26 points over their last five games.
At 9-4 overall, New England sits in the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoff standings, a half-game
behind 10-4 Kansas City.

Colts Betting Lines

Indianapolis, meanwhile, is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS over its last five games after blanking Houston two
weeks ago 31-0. The Colts then also had last week off.

Indy turned a takeaway on the first play of the game against the Texas into a touchdown and led
14-0 at the half. The Colts then pulled away in the second half for the win and the money as 10-
point road favorites.

Indianapolis out-gained Houston 389-141, out-rushed the Texans 238-84, and dominated time of
possession by a 42:18 split.

The Colts have now out-gained four of their last five opponents and out-rushed seven of their last
Ten foes. They’ve also scored at least 30 points seven times over their last eight games.
At 7-6 overall, Indy sits in the No. 6 spot in the AFC playoff standings, a tie-breaker ahead of
four other teams.

Patriots-Colts Recent History

New England owns an eight-game winning streak on Indianapolis, stretching back to 2010,
going 5-3 ATS along the way. Most recently, three seasons ago, the Patriots beat the Colts 38-24.
Some guy named Brady quarterbacked New England that day against Andrew Luck for Indy.

NFL Betting Trends

  • This season, New England is 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS on the road.
  • Home teams are just 88-117 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 98-109 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

The Under is 7-6 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 42 total points.
The Over is 8-5 in Colts games this season, which are averaging 50 points.
The Under is 112-95 in the NFL this season.

Patriots at Colts Prediction ATS 12/18/21

Both these teams are playing some good ball as of late, but ultimately we believe the Indianapolis
running game, powered by former Wisconsin Badger Jonathan Taylor, will make the difference.
On the season, the Colts are out-rushing opponents by 40 yards per game while New England is
out-grounding foes by nine YPG. And in the NFL, teams that win the ground battles cover the
spread about 65 percent of the time. So we like Indy here.
Free Pick: 
Take Indianapolis