New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Pick ATS - Odds and Betting Predictions

October 29, 8:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
New England -14

Monday Night Football features an AFC East matchup between two division rivals headed in opposite directions. The 5-2 New England Patriots head to New Era Field has heavy road favorites against the 2-5 Buffalo Bills in an 8:15 p.m. kickoff on ESPN.

New England at Buffalo Game Overview

The Patriots' slow start out of the gate to a 1-2 start both straight-up and against the spread has quickly turned into SU four-game winning streak with a 3-1 record ATS. The total went OVER 49 points in last Sunday's 38-31 victory against Chicago as two-point road favorites, and it has gone OVER in their last three games. New England is 1-2 (SU and ATS) on the road this season.

Tom Brady has been lighting it up during this winning streak throwing the ball and, on the year, he has 1,876 total passing yards with 16 passing touchdowns. A few injury concerns for Monday night include rookie running back Sony Michel and All-Pro tight end Ron Gronkowski. James White got the bulk of the carries running the ball against Chicago, and Josh Gordon hauled in four catches on seven targets for 100 receiving yards in that game.

It has been a rough start for Buffalo that has yet to end. With last Sunday's 37-5 loss to Indianapolis as a seven-point road underdog, it is 2-5 SU with a 3-4 record ATS. The two wins came against Minnesota on the road and Tennessee at home. The total stayed UNDER 43.5 points against the Colts, and it has stayed UNDER in their last five games.

The Bills' offense has consisted of a passing game that is ranked last in the NFL with an average of 129.4 yards per game complementing a running game that is adding another 104.6 yards. Rookie Josh Allen continues to go through his growing pains at quarterback while running back LeSean McCoy continues to battle injury as the team's leading rusher. With Allen on the shelf with an injured elbow, Derek Anderson should get the start on Monday night. McCoy is questionable while in "concussion" protocol.

New England at Buffalo Betting Trends

  • The Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a straight up losing record, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six division games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five AFC East games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 division games, but they are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games coming off an SU loss. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last nine Monday night games.
  • Head-to-head in this AFC East tilt, New England is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the total has gone OVER in five of the previous seven meetings in Buffalo.

Get more details: Patriots at Bills NFL Match-Up

New England at Buffalo Prediction 10/29/2018

New England is back on track after a shaky start, but that does not surprise anyone. The Patriots should be able to win this game with relative ease, but laying two touchdowns on the road against a division opponent always comes with some level of risk no matter how bad the Bills have looked in recent weeks.

None the less, New England is going to score some points on this Bills’ defense with Buffalo adding just enough points on its own to take the total OVER 44 points.

Free Pick: 
Take the Over 44
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