New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons Odds & Free Pick

November 18, 8:20 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
NE -7/Atl +7
Patriots -310/Falcons +260

The Patriots look like they're rounding into shape while the Falcons are hoping to get back to .500, heading into this week's edition of NFL Thursday night football betting action. This game involves a match-up of Atlanta veteran quarterback Matt Ryan against New England's new young gun, Mac Jones, and it's the young gun's team that's favored here.

Who do we like here for our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 11 NFL betting odds opened the Patriots as a five-point road favorite for this game, with an over/under of right around 46. Early betting action then bumped that spread to -7 and that total to 47.5.

Patriots Betting Preview

New England is 6-4 on the season after crushing Cleveland last week 45-7. The Patriots spotted the banged-up Browns the first seven points of the game, then scored the last 45, on their way toward a way-easier-than-expected victory and the easy money as two-point favorites.

New England out-gained Cleveland 452-217, out-rushed the Browns 184-99, and won the time of possession by a 34:26 split.

So the Patriots have out-gained and out-rushed three of their last four opponents. They're also 4-0 both SU and ATS over that span.

At 6-4 overall, New England now trails first-place Buffalo by just a half-game in the AFC East race. The Patriots also own the No. 6 spot in the AFC playoff standings. If the postseason started today, New England would play at Baltimore in a wild-card game.

Falcons Betting Preview

Atlanta, meanwhile, is 4-5 on the season after getting dumped at Dallas last week 43-3. The Fal-cons let the Cowboys drive the game's opening possession 73 yards to a touchdown, kicked a field goal to get within 7-3, then came up completely empty from there. Atlanta trailed 36-3 at the half and gave no fight in the second half, completely whiffing against the spread as an eight-point underdog.

The Falcons got out-gained by Dallas 431-214, lost time of possession by a 38:22 split, had a punt blocked for a touchdown, and lost the turnover battle 3-1. In other words, nothing went right.

So Atlanta has been out-gained and out-rushed by each of its last four opponents.

And yet the Falcons, after starting 0-2 this season, are 4-3, both SU and ATS their last seven times out.

At 4-6 overall, Atlanta trails first-place Tampa Bay by two games in the NFC South race, but it's only a half-game behind Carolina in the battle for the seventh and last NFC playoff spot.

These two teams met most recently four seasons ago, a 23-7 Patriots victory in Foxboro. Some guy named Brady quarterbacked New England that day against Ryan for the Falcons.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Home teams are just 71-75 SU, 61-85 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 88-60 SU but just 63-85 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home dogs are 19-36 SU, 27-28 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Over the last season-plus NFL Thursday night, home teams are 12-12 SU, 8-16 ATS.

Totals Report

Totals are split 5-5 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.

Overs are 5-4 in Falcons games this season, which are averaging 49 points.

The Under is 82-66 in the NFL this season.

Patriots vs. Falcons Prediction ATS 11/18/21

New England is coming off a 38-point victory, while Atlanta just got beat by 40 points. But the NFL can be a strange place, where what's hot one week is not the next, and vice versa, and that's the vibe we get while researching this game. The Patriots took advantage of a short-handed Cleveland team last week while Atlanta got victimized by a Dallas team prime for a rebound. Now, it's the Falcons turn. Also, we never mind betting against the public flow. We're not calling for the outright upset here, but we do like Atlanta getting the points as a home dog. 

Free Pick: 
Take Atlanta +7