MNF Pick: Ravens vs. Browns
This week's edition of Monday Night Football gives us the biggest game played in Cleveland in nearly 20 years as the Browns, questing for their first playoff appearance since 2002, host the Ravens for an AFC North rivalry bout. These teams met back in Week 1 of this season, a 38-6 Baltimore romp, but our guess is this one might play a little closer. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 14 NFL betting odds opened the Browns as 2.5-point home dogs for Monday night, with an over/under of right around 47. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
Ravens Betting Preview
Baltimore just halted a three-game losing skid by beating Dallas Tuesday night 34-17. The Ravens spotted the Cowboys the first three points of the game and trailed 10-7 in the second quarter, then used a 20-0 run spanning the halves to take control. Near the end, Baltimore stuck in a "screw you" touchdown with two minutes left to secure the victory and the cover as a nine-point favorite. The Ravens out-gained Dallas 401-388 and racked up 294 yards on the ground, albeit against the worst run defense in the League. Two games ago, Baltimore, playing without QB Lamar Jackson, lost at Pittsburgh 19-14; three games back, with Jackson, the Ravens lost to Tennessee 30-24 in overtime; and four games ago, they lost to New England 23-17.
At 7-5 overall, Baltimore trails Indianapolis by one game in the battle for the final AFC wild-card spot.
Browns Betting Preview
Meanwhile, Cleveland rides a four-game winning streak into Monday night after beating Tennessee last week 41-35. And that game wasn't nearly as close as that final score might indicate. The Browns scored the first 17 points of the game and led 38-7 at the half. Cleveland let the Titans get within 38-21 early in the third quarter, then allowed Tennessee to score twice in the last 90 seconds of the game to create a very misleading final margin. The Browns out-gained Tennessee 458-431, but the vast majority of the yardage the Cleveland defense gave up came in prevent mode. The Browns also out-rushed the Titans 118-62, dominated time of possession by a 37:23 split, and won the turnover battle 3-1. Cleveland has now out-gained and out-rushed each of its last four opponents. Two games ago, the Browns beat Jacksonville 27-25; three games ago, they beat Philadelphia 22-17; and four games ago, they beat Houston 10-7.
At 9-3 overall, Cleveland trails first-place Pittsburgh by two games in the AFC North race, with a game against the Steelers coming up in Week 17. The Browns also lead the AFC wild-card race by one game over Miami and the Colts.
Ravens-Browns Recent History
Baltimore beat Cleveland 18 out of 20 times from 2008-17, but the Browns managed splits of the season series the last two years. However, back in Week 1 of this season, the Ravens routed Cleveland 38-6, covering easily as seven-point favorites. Also, that game played under a total of 47.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 97-95 SU, 91-100 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 125-66 SU, 81-109 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 39-30 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Get more details: Ravens vs. Browns MNF Match-up Stats
Unders are 7-5 in Ravens games this season, which are averaging 46 total points. Overs are 7-5 in Browns games this season, which are averaging 52 points. Overs are 96-93 in the NFL this season.
Free NFL Pick
Cleveland carries Big Mo into Monday night, and we actually believe the Browns are the better team at the moment. Also, while we do not regard revenge as a reliable handicapping factor, it may come into play here. It's just a shame there won't be 67,000 screaming dawgs in the seats for this one. We're betting the Browns for the win.