Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears MNF Odds, Trends & Free Pick

November 16, 8:15 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Minn -3/Chic +3
Vikings -179/Bears +159

Monday Night Football offers up a Black and Blue rivalry match as the Minnesota Vikings hit Chicago to battle the Bears. Minnesota started very poorly this season but rides back-to-back victories into this game. On the other hand, Chicago started great this season but lugs a three-game losing skid into Monday night. Early betting flipped the favorite on this contest. Who do we like for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 10 NFL betting odds opened Chicago at -1.5 for this game, with an over/under of right around 46. Early betting action then flipped Minnesota into a -2.5 favorite and dipped that total to 44.

Vikings vs. Bears Betting Preview

Following a 1-5 start to this season Minnesota owns consecutive wins, including a 34-20 decision over Detroit last week. The Vikings, shooting to avoid a letdown after beating Green Bay the week previous, drove their first two possessions of the game 67 and 64 yards to touchdowns. They then let the Lions get within 13-10 but drove 87 yards in one minute for another touchdown and a 20-10 halftime advantage. Minnesota then scored the first seven points out of the locker room and eased home from there for the victory and the cover as a three-point favorite.

The Vikings out-gained Detroit 487-421, but as with most Lions games, a big chunk of their yardage came in catch-up mode. Minnesota also out-rushed Detroit 275-129, as Dalvin Cook popped off for 206, and won the turnover battle 3-0, picking off three Lions passes inside Vikings territory.

The only things that went wrong for the Vikes last week were two blocked punts in the second half. Fortunately, they didn't affect the game's outcome, but it's something Minnesota has to keep an eye on now.

The Vikings have now out-gained four of their last six opponents and out-rushed five of their previous six foes. Not coincidentally, they're also 5-1 ATS their last times out.

Two weeks ago, Minnesota out-rushed the Packers 173-109 and won at Lambeau Field 28-22.

Chicago, meanwhile, following a 5-1 start, owns three straight defeats after falling at Tennessee last week 24-17. The Bears, looking absolutely inept on offense for most of the day, trailed 10-0 at the half, then gave the Titans a fumble return touchdown in the third quarter to fall down by three scores. Chicago tacked on two meaningless touchdowns in the last five minutes of the game to make the final score respectable but couldn't cover as a 6.5-point dog.

The Bears actually out-gained Tennessee 375-228, won first downs 22-11, and held a 34:26 advantage in time of possession. But over half of Chicago's offensive yardage came in garbage time. The Bears also lost the turnover battle 2-0.

Prior to last week, Chicago had been out-gained each of its previous five games, and it's been out-rushed each of its previous seven games.

Two weeks ago, the Bears played New Orleans tough, lost 26-23 in overtime but covered as 5.5-point home dogs. Three weeks ago, Chicago got out-played by the Rams, lost 24-10, and came up short ATS as 6.5-point dogs.

At 5-4 overall, the Bears trail division-leading Green Bay by a game and a half in the NFC North, with 3-5 Minnesota three games back. Chicago also trails Arizona by a half-game in the battle for the sixth and final NFC playoff spot, with the Vikings two games ago.

Vikings-Bears Recent History

Chicago owns a four-game winning streak in the rivalry with Minnesota, going 3-1 ATS along the way. Last year the Bears beat the Vikings 16-6 at home, then 21-19 in what was a totally meaningless game for both teams in Week 17 in Minneapolis.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Minnesota is 21-17-1, both SU and ATS, with Kirk Cousins starting at QB.
  • Chicago QB Nick Foles is 29-26 SU, 23-31-1 ATS as an NFL starter.
  • Home teams are only 65-67 SU, 64-70 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 84-47 SU but just 54-76 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home dogs are 14-34 SU, 26-20 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Overs are 6-2 in Vikings games this season, which are averaging 56 total points against an average over/under of 50.

Unders are 6-3 in Bears games this season, which are averaging 41 points against an average O/U of 44.

After going 9-4 last week, the overs are 72-58 in the NFL this season.

Unders are 4-2 over the last six meetings between these te

Minnesota at Chicago Prediction 11/16/20

Minnesota's playing the better ball as of late, it's got the better running game, and while the defense is a bit iffy, Chicago doesn't have the ability to take advantage. We don't usually like going along with the betting flow, but we like the Vikes here, minus the points.

Free Pick: 
Take the Vikings -3