Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills Week 10 Odds, Analysis, Free Pick ATS

November 13, 1:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Minn +3.5/Buff -3.5

Week 10 of this NFL betting season gives us a possible Super Bowl preview when the 7-1 Vikings take on the 6-2 Bills Sunday afternoon in Buffalo. Minnesota's coming off a come-from-behind victory last week, while Buffalo took a tough divisional loss. And Bills QB Josh Allen hurt his elbow in the process.

How are we playing this game with our free Min/Buf pick?

NFL Betting Lines

Some Week 10 NFL betting odds opened Buffalo at as high as -9.5 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 49.5. But with the uncertainty about Allen's availability, the spread, and the total both dropped six points to -3.5 and 43.5.

Vikings-Bills NFL Betting Preview

Minnesota rides a six-game winning streak into Buffalo after coming from behind to beat Washington on the road last week 20-17. The Vikings drove the opening possession of the game 78 yards to a touchdown but only led 7-3 at the half. Minnesota then fell behind the Commanders 17-7 early in the fourth quarter but scored the last 13 points of the game, winning it on a field goal with 12 seconds left.

The Vikings out-gained Washington 301-263 even though they only produced 56 yards on the ground, a season-low.

Two weeks ago, Minnesota trailed Arizona in the third quarter 17-14 but rallied to win 34-26 and cover at -4. Three weeks ago, the Vikings won at Miami 24-16 and covered at -3.

By the numbers, Minnesota doesn't really impress; it ranks 15th in the League in total offense at 340 yards per game and 25th in total defense, allowing 368 YPG, all while playing what Sagarin's NFL rankings (at USAToday.com) rate as the second-easiest schedule. And yet, at 7-1 overall, the Vikings sit in the No. 2 spot in the NFC playoff standings.

Buffalo, meanwhile, just had a four-game winning streak snapped by losing at the rival Jets last week 20-17. The Bills scored the first seven points of the game and led 14-10 at the half. But they fell down 17-14 late in the third quarter, tied it at 17-17 early in the fourth, fell down again on a New York field goal with just under two minutes to go, and could not mount a reply.

In the process, Buffalo became the second double-digit favorite to lose outright in the NFL this season.

The Bills out-gained the Jets 317-310 but gave up 174 yards on the ground, lost time of possession by a 33:27 split, and committed the key turnover of the game, an Allen interception that led to a New York touchdown in the third quarter.

The big news to come out of last week's game was Allen's injured elbow, suffered on Buffalo's last drive. As of Thursday morning, he's listed as questionable for Sunday, but our guess is he'll play. If he can't go, former Viking Case Keenum, who's 29-35 as an NFL starter, would get the call.

At 6-2 overall, the Bills are tied with Kansas City for the best record in the AFC, and they own the head-to-head tie-breaker on the Chiefs, thanks to that 24-20 win at Arrowhead Stadium a few weeks ago.

These two teams have played two common opponents so far this season, Miami and Green Bay. The Vikings played those foes to 2-0 both SU and ATS but -83 YPG, Buffalo 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS but +128 YPG.

Vikings-Bills History

These teams have only met 14 times before, Minnesota winning eight, but Buffalo winning four of the last five. Most recently, four seasons ago, the Bills won in Minneapolis 27-6. Allen, making his second career start, accounted for three touchdowns that day, while Kirk Cousins, making his third start for Minnesota, threw 55 passes in vain.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Home teams are 73-59 SU and 65-65 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 82-52 SU but 56-75 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • The Totals are split 4-4 in Vikings games this season, averaging 44 total points.
  • The Unders are 7-1 in Bills games this season which are averaging 42 points.
  • After going 9-4 last week, the Unders are a lopsided 81-53 in the NFL this season.

Vikings at Bills Prediction ATS 11/13/22

Off the top, we expect Allen to play for Buffalo Sunday. From there, we expect a rebound effort from the Bills, following a poor one last week, while Minnesota might be ripe for a letdown, following an emotional come-from-behind effort last week. Also, Buffalo owns the better defense. Also, the spread moved in a good direction. We're betting on the Bills Sunday.

Free Pick: 
Take Bufflao -3.5 (Note the line is from Friday when written)