Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans Pick - Odds and ATS Predictions

October 25, 8:20 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Houston -7.5

Week 9 of the NFL season gets underway with an interesting AFC matchup between the 4-3 Miami Dolphins and the 4-3 Houston Texans. Game time from NRG Stadium in Houston is set for 8:20 on NFL Network.

Miami at Houston Game Overview

The Dolphins had their hands full with Detroit on Sunday in a 32-21 loss as three-point home underdogs. The total easily went OVER the closing 47-point line, and it has gone OVER in four of Miami's first seven games. The team will go back on the road this Thursday with a 1-2 record both straight-up and against the spread in three previous road games. Its overall record ATS this season is also 4-3.

In the absence of an injured Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, Brock Osweiler took over the starting role against the Lions. He completed 22 of his 31 passing attempts for 239 yards and two touchdown throws against zero interceptions. The Dolphins added 107 yards running the ball with Kenyan Drake gaining 72 yards with one touchdown on just six rushing attempts. You would have to pin this loss on a defense that allowed 248 rushing yards on 35 carries.

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Houston has now won its last four games SU with Sunday’s 20-7 victory against AFC South rival Jacksonville as a 3.5-point road underdog. It has gone an even 2-2 ATS during this winning streak as part of an overall record of 2-5 ATS. The Texans started the season 0-3 SU with road losses to New England and Tennessee followed by a loss to the New York Giants at home.

You would have to give quite a bit of credit to Houston’s defense for this current winning streak. After allowing 34 points in a wild three-point road victory against Indianapolis, this unit has given up a combined 36 points over the last three wins. Deshaun Watson continues to play with a cracked rib and bruised lung with some degree of success. He completed just half of his 24 passing attempts against the Jaguars for 139 passing yards and one passing touchdown, while the Texans racked up another 141 yards on the ground on 37 rushing attempts.

Miami at Houston Betting Trends

  • The Dolphins have gone 6-10-2 ATS in their last 18 games overall and they have failed to cover in seven of their last eight road games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their previous five games on the road.
  • The Texans are just 2-10 ATS over their last 12 games, and they have failed to cover in their previous five games at home. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five home games.
  • Houston has won seven of its last eight games against Miami SU with a 5-3 record ATS. The total stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in five of the eight games.

Get more details: Miami at Houston NFL Match-Up

Miami at Houston Prediction 10/25/2018

Each of these teams has played exceptionally well at times this season, and each one has also won a few games it probably should have lost. Houston is riding a four-game winning streak, but the spread in this conference clash is a bit too wide to ride the home team.

I am going to take the points and Miami to cover ATS. Right now, the extra half-point on the touchdown spread makes all the difference in the world for the road team on Thursday night.

Free Pick: 
Take Miami +7.5
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