Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Odds & Predictions

Date: 
January 16, 4:35 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
LAR +6.5/GB -6.5
Total: 
45.5

After securing the NFC's only first-round bye, the Green Bay Packers will return to action on Saturday when they host the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field. The Packers secured the NFC's top seed following a 13-3 SU regular season campaign and will be sizable 7.5 point favorites when they defend the frozen tundra on Saturday. To many onlookers' surprise, the visiting Rams stymied Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in last week's AFC Wild Card match-up in Seattle. Despite a 10-6 SU record and consistent offensive struggles, the Rams defense has kept the team within title contention.

The Rams elite pass rush led by DT Aaron Donald frustrated the Seahawks passing attack, which was held to a mere 142 yards through the air. Despite the inconsistent offensive production, the Rams' defense has proven to be an elite group, and they will get their biggest challenge of the year in the form of QB Aaron Rodgers, and the NFL's top ranked Packers' offense that has averaged 32 points per game throughout the season. The question for this Saturday's match-up is can the Rams' defense find a way to slow down the Packers' highly efficient offense to yield another chance at an upset?

The Packers are 19-5 SU in home playoff games

The vast majority of NFL fans and bettors know the beating Green Bay at Lambeau Field is going to be tough. The Packers sport the NFL's most potent offense and are perfectly comfortable with the extremely frigid conditions that accompany Lambeau Field in the late weeks of the season. Collectively, the Packers have maintained one of the greatest home margins in playoff history with a 19-5 SU franchise record at home during the postseason. Since the Packers will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, it definitely helps their chances towards making another run at the Super Bowl, especially on Saturday with temperatures expected to dip down into the mid-20s, which will be a stark change for the visiting Rams.

Rams vs. Packers Betting Analysis

Personally, I did not think the Rams would make it past Seattle. With all of the issues surrounding the Rams offense in recent weeks, I did not think they would make enough plays to overcome the Seahawks. Importantly, I think we should point out that QB Jared Goff looked fairly awful, completing just 9 of 19 passing for 155 yards with one touchdown. Luckily, the Rams got a big effort from RB Cam Akers, who appears to be fully healthy for the first time in several weeks. Akers carried a heavy workload converting 28 carries into 131 yards with one touchdown.

At face value, I know it does not look like the Rams' have the firepower to contend with Green Bay; however, they do have the perfect combination, in the form of strong defense and a healthy running game, to surprise the masses. Throughout the season, we have seen Green Bay struggle against elite pass rushes. Just look at the Tampa Bay game for reference. The Rams are going to get to Rodgers and make things difficult. If they can back up the defensive play with a solid running game to control the clock, this could be a lot closer than most experts expect. The Packers have given up 126 yards per game on the ground over the past three contests, which gives the Rams their best opportunity at another upset.

The downside to that argument is simply the notion of betting against the Packers. QB Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season with a 70 percent completion rate, 4,299 passing yards, 48 touchdowns, and just five picks. WR Davante Adams has been practically unstoppable, and fans will get treated to a fantastic match-up with Adams lined up against CB Jalen Ramsey. Even if Ramsey has some success, Rodgers can spread the ball around with laser precision to keep the offense moving forward. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling and TE Robert Tonyan have been pleasant surprises in recent weeks, and it would not be shocking to see either player get some extra targets on Saturday. More importantly, from a betting standpoint is that if Goff continues to have issues or the Rams run game falters, the Packers are going to take advantage if they get an ample amount of possessions.

Rams vs. Packers Betting Trends

  • The Rams are 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
  • The Rams have hit the "under" in four of the last five games.
  • The Rams are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games on the road.
  • The Rams are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games as an underdog.
  • The Packers are 4-2 ATS in the last six games.
  • The Packers have hit the "under" in five of the last six games at home against the Rams.
  • The Packers are 8-4 ATS in the last 12 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Packers are also 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings against the Rams.

LA Rams at Green Bay Prediction 1/16/21

I just can't trust the Rams offense in this match-up, nor can I bet against the Packers offense that is playing some of the best football we have seen from an NFC team in years. I believe the Rams offensive problems become the storyline this week.

Free Pick: 
Take Green Bay -6.5