Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins Odds, Trends, Free Pick
Don't look now, but the Miami Dolphins have rattled off four straight victories to climb back into the thick of the AFC Playoffs discussion. After a 1-3 SU start to the season, the playoffs were possibly the furthest thing from reality for Dolphins fans. However, that belief has subsided with more optimism in recent weeks following an impressive win streak that includes victories over the 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals. Last Sunday, rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa flashed his potential in his 2nd career start to help the Dolphins rack up 34 points in a close victory over the Arizona Cardinals.
On Sunday, the Dolphins look to keep the momentum going when they host the Los Angeles Chargers at Hard Rock Stadium. The Chargers are 2-6 SU on the season, having won just once in the last six games. It is worth noting that all six losses were decided by one score or less. Therefore, it's not like Los Angeles has not been competitive. Like Miami, the Chargers have found optimism in a young rookie quarterback in Justin Herbert, who has helped the Chargers average over 30 points per contest in the last five games. This Sunday's match-up between the Chargers and Dolphins will be one to watch as two of the most exciting young dual threats quarterbacks battle it out.
Chargers vs. Dolphins Key Injuries
Over the last few weeks, it seems like an usually high amount of injuries have taken place that has caused significant personnel changes. Both the Chargers and Dolphins have fallen victim to that trend going into this Sunday's meeting. Miami placed WR Preston Williams on the IR on Tuesday following a foot injury in the win over Arizona last week. Williams leads the Dolphins with four touchdown catches on the season. Running back Myles Gaskins was already placed on the IR prior to Week 9 and now running back Matt Brieda is officially listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. If Brieda is unable to go on Sunday, it would be a pretty significant fall-off in talent to 3rd string back Salvon Ahmed.
The Chargers also have some question marks at the running back position. Star RB Austin Ekeler will not be eligible to return from the IR until week 11. Justin Jackson had filled into the starting spot nicely in recent weeks, but Jackson will be out on Sunday with a knee injury. The Chargers recently picked up RB Kalen Ballage, who made his debut last week. With Jackson injured, Ballage looked good, carrying the ball 15 times for 69 yards and a touchdown. Therefore, Ballage is expected to get most of the carries in the wake of Jackson's injury. While the running back situation may be solved for, the Chargers' biggest injury concerns have been on the defensive side of the ball. It started with the loss of FS Derwin James and has facilitated throughout the secondary. Cornerbacks Chris Harris and Brandon Facyson have missed time and are listed as questionable on Sunday. Furthermore, DE Joey Bosa's status for Sunday is also listed as questionable due to being in the concussion protocol.
Chargers vs. Dolphins Betting Analysis
When I break this match-up down, I am not finding much value on either side of the spread. I think the Chargers have something special with QB Justin Herbert. Herbert has played like a veteran completing 68% passing with 17 touchdowns and five picks on the season. Honestly, I believe the only reason the Chargers have been as competitive is because of his play. Put Tyrod Taylor or any other young quarterback in that situation, and I'm not sure they could get the same results. The problem is that the Chargers defense has been hit hard with injuries and lacks talent. The Chargers cannot pull out these close victories because the defense has difficulty stopping opposing offenses. As a result, this should help Miami's offense. Though QB Tua Tagovailoa is an exciting player to watch, he has not exactly been great. I'm expecting more opportunities to be open down the field this week, which should provide a better gauge of the rookie's passing potential. Either way, I just don't see this week's game as a safe bet on either side of the spread.
- Get more details: LAC/MIA Week 10 Match-up Stats
Los Angeles vs. Miami Betting Trends
- The Chargers are 1-6 SU in the last seven games.
- The Chargers have hit the "over" in the last five games straight.
- The Chargers are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games against Miami.
- The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games.
- The Dolphins have hit the "under" in four of the last six games.
- The Dolphins are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games at home.
Chargers vs. Dolphins Week 10 Total Pick
The best value in this game revolves around the total, which is currently posted at 48 points. The Chargers' defensive issues and the emergence of Herbert have pushed their games towards a higher pace than many expected. As a result, the Chargers have hit the "over" in 5 of the last five games. Meanwhile, Miami is averaging 30 points per game over their past four contests as well. Miami's defense deserves some credit for the winning streak as they have played really well. With that said, I still expect the Chargers to find scoring opportunities based on the match-up. As long as Miami keeps their offensive momentum rolling, the total for this game seems off. This total should be in the 52-54 range, and I think we can find legitimate probabilistic value in siding with the over 48.