LA Rams at Miami Dolphins Odds & Pick ATS

November 1, 1:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
LAR -3.5/MIA +3.5

The Los Angeles Rams moved to 5-2 SU last week by taking down the Chicago Bears 24-10 in front of a Monday Night Football audience. The Rams defense played well against an inept Bears offense allowing just 279 total yards and forcing a pair of turnovers. Despite the 5-2 SU record, the Rams will be only slight favorites when they face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday. The 3-3 SU Dolphins have been competitive this season and made a major announcement going into their Week 7 bye when the team announced they will hand the reins over to rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins were previously led by journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who was having a really solid season despite the turnovers. Fitzpatrick has maintained a 70% completion rate and tossed ten touchdowns with seven interceptions on the year. However, the Dolphins believe that Tagovailoa could give the team an additional spark and the playmaking ability to compete at a higher level. The former Alabama quarterback is a southpaw that completed a high percentage of passes for the Crimson Tide and, most importantly, made very few mistakes. Tagovailoa also provides a legitimate dual-threat at the quarterback position, which could also help the Dolphins with their struggling rushing attack.

QB Tua Tagovailoa expectations for week 8

The big question going into Tagovailoa's first start is how will the rookie react? The Dolphins offense primarily relies on the passing attack, and that was a role that Fitzpatrick has embraced throughout his career. However, Tagovailoa has been in high-pressure situations that should have him as prepared for this game as any rookie quarterback. Still, the concerns for Tagovailoa surround the Rams pass rush going into week 8. If the offensive line can give Tagovailoa time to throw the football, I have seen him play enough to expect good things. However, the Rams rank 3rd in the NFL with 24 sacks and consistently are among the best teams in the league in pressure rate. I would not be surprised if we see Tagovailoa use his legs often this week to evade the Rams' pass rush. As long as the offensive line gives him a chance, I believe Tagovailoa can improve this offense. WR DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and TE Mike Gesicki can make the plays necessary to compete in this match-up, and that is exactly what I expect to happen.

Rams vs. Dolphins Betting Analysis

I think one of the biggest questions that bettors must ask this week is how good are the Rams? Despite the 5-2 SU record, I have not been very impressed with the Rams throughout the season. If we look closer, the five wins are a product of NFC East opponents who may be the worst division in football in the last 20 years and last Monday's meeting against the broken Chicago Bears franchise. QB Jared Goff has basically become a game-manager in Sean McVay's offense. Goff has been held to 219 passing yards or less in three of the last four games and only has one game this season with more than two touchdown passes. Simply put, this Rams offense has done nothing but post mediocre results on a near-weekly basis.

The Rams' best path to a cover along with another victory this Sunday remains on the ground. Running back Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers are a running back by committee despite Henderson getting the majority of the work this season. This week's match-up is advantageous to the Rams' run-first offense, and this is perhaps a scenario where they could thrive if the Rams defense can force the rookie quarterback into a few turnovers. With that said, I'm just not sure that is a slam dunk scenario. The Rams offense simply has not yielded the production to put reliable confidence towards, and the Dolphins have quietly averaged 29.8 points per game over their last five contests. If Tagovailoa provides any improvement, which I believe he will, the Dolphins could instantly become a very threatening offense, and that could provide some instant issues for a Rams offense struggling to score points!

Rams vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Rams have hit the "under" in four of the last five games.
  • The Rams are just 1-10 SU against Miami in the last 11 meetings.
  • The Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
  • The Rams are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games against Miami.
  • The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Dolphins have hit the "under" in four of the last six games
  • The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
  • The Dolphins are also 5-0 SU in their last five games against the Rams at home.

Rams vs. Dolphins Prediction 11/1/20

I’ll take the better offense at home with the hopes Tagovailoa lives up to the expectations.
Free Pick: 
Take Miami +3.5