Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds Analysis - Free Pick

Date: 
September 28, 8:15 PM EDT
Location:
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Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
KC +3.5 / BAL +3.5
Moneyline: 
Chiefs +150/Ravens -170
Total: 
54.5

It's a big-time NFL showdown when the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs roll with the Ravens.

Monday night in Baltimore. Kansas City rides an 11-game winning streak into Week 3, while the Ravens own a 14-game regular-season winning streak. Plus, the teams feature two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the game. Baltimore is favored by three and an all-important hook; how are we playing this game with our NFL point spread pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 3's NFL betting odds opened Baltimore at -2.5 over KC, with an over/under of right around 52.5. Early betting action then bumped the Ravens to -3.5 and the total to 54.

Chiefs vs. Ravens Set-Up

Kansas City is 2-0 on the season, after outlasting the Chargers on the West Coast last week 23-20 in overtime. The Chiefs allowed San Diego (yea, we still call 'em "San Diego" because they don't play in Los Angeles, either) to drive the game's opening possession to a touchdown, trailed 14-6 at the half and 17-6 well into the third quarter. KC then woke up and used an 11-0 spurt to tie the game at 17-17 early in the fourth. The Chiefs then fell behind 20-17 but drove 63 yards to a game-tying field goal at the buzzer. Kansas City then made a defensive stop on the opening possession of OT, then won it on Harrison Butker's 58-yard field goal with just under two minutes left in extra time.

However, the Chiefs never came close to covering the spread last week as favorites of 8.5 points against a team with a rookie quarterback making his first career start.

On the day, KC got out-gained by the Chargers 479-414, out-rushed 183-125, and lost time of possession by a 39:28 split. And that's not usually the way one wins games or covers spreads in the NFL. Fortunately for the Chiefs, they made the big defensive play of the game, a third-quarter interception that stopped a San Diego drive into KC territory, which Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill promptly turned into a Chiefs touchdown, totally reversing momentum.

Kansas City opened its season with that 34-20 victory over Houston, covering at -9.5.

Baltimore is also 2-0 on the season, after also beating Houston last week 33-16. The Ravens took advantage of a questionable Texans go-for-it call to score the first 10 points of the game, let Houston get within 10-7, then pulled away from there. Baltimore led 20-10 at the half, 23-10 after three quarters, then basically iced the game on Mark Ingram's 30-yard TD jaunt – off a direct snap - early in the fourth. The Ravens also covered the spread as 7.5-point road favorites.


On the day Baltimore out-gained the Texans 407-304, out-rushed Houston 230-51, dominated time of possession 35:25, and won the turnover battle 2-0. Meanwhile, the Ravens defense allowed just one Texans touchdown and scored one of its own.

Baltimore opened its season with that 38-6 romp over Cleveland, easily covering at -7.

Chiefs-Ravens Recent History

These teams and quarterbacks have met each of the last two seasons, KC and Mahomes winning both games at Arrowhead Stadium. Two years ago, the Chiefs outlasted the Ravens 27-24 in overtime, but Baltimore covered at +6.5. Last year, Kansas City took a big early lead and hung on to win 33-28, covering at -4.5.

Both those games played over their totals, although the match two years ago needed overtime to do it.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Kansas City is 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS in true road games over the last season-plus.
  • Kansas City is 2-1 both SU and ATS in its last three games as an underdog.
  • Baltimore is 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS at home over the last season-plus.
  • Favorites are 23-9 SU but only 14-17-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home teams are 19-13 SU, 17-14-1 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • Totals are split 9-9 in Chiefs games over the last season-plus, which have averaged 48 total points.
  • Totals are also split 9-9 in Ravens games over the last season-plus, which have averaged 50 points.
  • Overs are 20-12 in the NFL this season.

Chiefs vs Ravens Week 3 Prediction

Baltimore is 21-3 with Lamar Jackson starting at QB, but 0-2 against Kansas City. Also, the Chiefs are coming off a less-than-wonderful performance last week against the Chargers, but we expect better this week. And we're getting three and a hook? We'll take KC and the points.

Free Pick: 
Take the Kansas City +3.5
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