Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers Week 15 Odds & Picks
The AFC West offers up a great game to watch and bet when the first-place Chiefs visit the second-place Chargers for this week's edition of Thursday night football betting action. Kansas City started slowly this season but rolls into this one wins six straight victories. Los Angeles, meanwhile, is heating up itself, with three wins its last four times out. KC is lined as a short road chalk for this one; which way are we going here with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 15 NFL betting odds opened Kansas City as a three-point divisional road favorite for this game, with an over/under of right around 49.5. Early betting action then bumped that total almost a field goal, to 52.
Chiefs Betting Preview
Kansas City rides a six-game winning streak into Thursday night after destroying Las Vegas last Sunday 48-9. The Chiefs returned a Raiders fumble for a touchdown on the first play of the game, then scored touchdowns on four of their first five possessions to lead 35-0, on their way toward the easy victory and easy cover as 10-point favorites. KC out-gained Vegas, 372-290, out-rushed the Raiders 132-44, and won the turnover battle 5-0, creating a +28 points differential. So the Chiefs have now out-gained and out-rushed four of their last six opponents, going 4-2 ATS along the way. Kansas City has also allowed a total of just 65 points over its last six games. At 9-4, overall, KC leads the AFC West by one game over the 8-5 Chargers, although Los Angeles owns the head-to-head tie-breaker on the Chiefs. So a loss Thursday would cost Kansas City two games in the divisional race.
Chargers Betting Preview
The Chargers, meanwhile, are 3-1 over their last four games after beating the Giants last Sunday 37-21. That game was tied at 7-7 until Los Angeles used a 30-0 run spanning the halves to take total control, on its way toward the win and the cover at -9.5. The Chargers out-gained New York 423-317. So Los Angeles has now out-gained six of its last seven opponents. The LAC has also scored at least 37 points three times in their last four games. At 8-5 overall, as mentioned above, the Chargers trail division-leading Kansas City by just one game in the AFC West but own the head-to-head tie-breaker. So a victory Thursday would be huge.
Chiefs-Chargers Recent History
Kansas City beat the Chargers 12 out of 14 meetings from 2014 through last season, and one of those losses was completely meaningless to the Chiefs, having already clinched the division last year. But Los Angeles also took the first meeting of this season back in September in Kansas City 30-24. The Chiefs actually out-gained the Chargers that day 437-352 but turned the ball over four times, which basically cost them 26 points and the game. Los Angeles won that game outright as a dog getting 6.5 points and the game sneaked under a total of 55.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are just 100-104 SU, 88-116 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 126-80 SU, 97-109 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 28-54 SU, 37-45 ATS in the NFL this season.
The Under is 7-6 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 48 total points. The Under is 7-6 in Chargers games this season, which are averaging 53 points. Even after the Overs played 10-3 last week, the Unders are 112-94 in the NFL this season.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Week Prediction 12/16/21
These two teams are nearly identical offensively, but we give Kansas City the check-mark on defense because of that unit's great recent play and the fact that the Chargers rank 31st in the league against the run. So we like the Chiefs here, giving the short spread at a place with very little home-field advantage.