Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Week 18 Free Pick ATS

January 8, 4:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
KC -11

The AFC West champion Chiefs shoot to sustain momentum heading into the playoffs when they battle the Broncos in the regular-season finale for both teams Saturday afternoon in Denver.
Kansas City is headed toward another postseason run they hope will result in a third straight trip to the Super Bowl, while the Broncos are probably headed for another coaching change.

The Chiefs are favored by double-digits on the road for this one; how are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 18 NFL betting odds opened Kansas City as a 10-point divisional road favorite for this game, with an over/under of right around 44.5. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Chiefs-Broncos NFL Betting Preview

Kansas City just had an eight-game winning streak snapped by a 34-31 come-from-ahead loss at Cincinnati last week. The Chiefs scored the first 14 points of the game and led 28-17 at the half. KC then fell down 31-28 early in the fourth quarter, tied it at 31-31 with six minutes left but lost it on a Bengals field goal at the buzzer.

The Chiefs got out-gained by Cincinnati 475-414 and managed just 112 yards and three points in the second half.

Prior to last week, Kansas City had limited its previous eight opponents to an average of just 13 points per game. The Chiefs have also scored at least 31 points each of their last four games.

At 11-5 overall, Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West title and sits in the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoff standings. If the Chiefs win Saturday and Tennessee loses at Houston, which isn't as unlikely as first glance might indicate, Sunday KC would sneak up into the No. 1 spot.

Denver, meanwhile, lugs a three-game losing skid into Saturday after falling to the Chargers in Los Angeles last week 34-13. The Broncos allowed a long opening kick-off return and a 55-yard touchdown drive on the first possession of the game and trailed 17-3 at the half. Denver still trailed 20-6 early in the fourth quarter, then gave up a 101-yard kick-off return for a touchdown and totally whiffed ATS as a nine-point underdog.

The Broncos got out-gained by Los Angeles 341-319 and twice failed inside the Chargers' 5-yard line.

Denver has actually out-gained three of its last five opponents and out-rushed four of its last six foes. But the Broncos have also been held to 13 points or less four times over their last five games.

At 7-9 overall, Denver is eliminated from playoff contention and may very well be playing its last game under Coach Fangio.

Chiefs-Broncos Recent History

Kansas City owns a 12-game winning streak in the rivalry with Denver, going 10-2 ATS along the way. The Chiefs took the first meeting between these teams this season a month ago, 22-9, covering at -8.5.

KC actually got out-gained by the Broncos that night 404-267 but won the turnover battle 3-1, creating a +10 points differential.

Also, that game played under a total of 47.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Home teams are 119-133 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 124-130 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home dogs are 47-51 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Double-digit favorites are 27-17 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

The Over is 9-7 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 50 total points.

The Under is 12-4 in Broncos games this season, which are averaging just 38 points.

The Under is 139-115 in the NFL this season.

The Under is 5-1-1 over the last seven meetings between these two teams.

Chiefs at Broncos Prediciton 1/8/22

Kansas City is still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC while Denver, well, we're not sure what they're playing for. Also, the Chiefs basically got outplayed by the Broncos a month ago, but we don't think that will happen this time. And after blowing last week's game, we expect a rebound effort from KC here. So we're giving the points with the Chiefs.  

Free Pick: 
Take Kansas City -11