Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Pick ATS - Odds and Betting Preview

October 1, 8:15 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Kansas City -5

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos square off against one another on Monday Night Football. The undefeated Chiefs are listed as five-point road favorites, and 5Dimes has set the total line at 55.5 points.

Week 4 in the NFL closes things out on Monday night with a big AFC West showdown between the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2-1 Denver Broncos. Game time from Sports Authority Field at Mile High is set for 8:15 p.m. on ESPN.

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Kansas City at Denver Game Overview

Kansas City has lit things up in its first three games with road victories against the Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers as an underdog followed by last Sunday’s 38-27 win against San Francisco as a six-point favorite in its home opener. The Chiefs have scored at least 38 points in all three wins, and the total has gone OVER in all three games.

The biggest story behind this impressive 3-0 start both straight-up and against the spread has been the stellar play of second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He has thrown for 896 yards and 13 touchdowns against zero interceptions in his first three games while completing 66.7 percent of his 93 passing attempts. His top target has been tight end Travis Kelce with 16 receptions and wide receiver Tyreek Hill leads the team in receiving yards with 310.

The Broncos opened their season with SU wins at home against Seattle and Oakland ahead of last week’s 27-14 road loss to Baltimore. They failed to cover in two of those games with the 27-24 victory against the Seahawks ending as a PUSH. The total has stayed UNDER in Denver's last two games. The Broncos return home for Monday night's game with a 1-5-1 record ATS in their previous seven games at Mile High.

Case Keenum took over the starting role at quarterback coming over from Minnesota in the offseason. He has completed 66 of his first 108 passing attempts for 743 yards and three touchdowns, but he has already tossed five interceptions. Emmanuel Sanders is Denver’s leading receiver with 19 catches for 269 yards and one score. The Broncos have done a great job of moving the ball downfield on the ground with an average of 144.7 rushing yards per game.

Kansas City at Denver Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs have covered ATS in 20 of their last 27 division games and they are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games against the AFC. The total has gone OVER in their last four Monday night games.
  • The Broncos are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games played on Monday night, and they have failed to cover in their previous five AFC West matchups. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven Monday night games.
  • Head-to-head in this division clash, the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in the previous six games between the two.

Kansas City at Denver Prediction 10/01/2018

Betting against a team as hot as Kansas City does not make all that much sense, but there has to be some concern with a defense that has allowed an average of 30.7 points in those first three wins. The recent betting trends work against Denver in this matchup, but the Broncos know just how important a victory on Monday night would be in the process of turning things around.

My lean is actually towards the Broncos on Monday night with the five points, but my ‘best bet’ pick is the OVER 55.5 on the current total line.

Free Pick: 
Take the Over 55.5

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