New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons Preseason Pick

August 15, 7:30 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Falcons -2

The Falcons own a 10-game exhibition season losing streak, heading into a match-up with the Jets Thursday night. Matty Ice hasn't played this exhibition season yet, but he may see some field action in this one, possibly against New York's new young gun, Sam Darnold. Who do we like here for our free NFL exhibition pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 2's NFL exhibition betting odds opened Atlanta at -1 over New York, with an over/under of 42. Early betting action then bumped the Falcons to -2 and the total to 44.

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Jets vs. Falcons Set-Up

New York opened its 2019 exhibition season with a 31-22 loss to the Giants last Thursday. Starting quarterback, Sam Darnold drove the Jets 75 yards to a touchdown on the opening drive of the game, then sat the rest of the way. New York later led 15-14 late in the second quarter but gave up the next 17 points of the game, seven on a pick-six in the third quarter, and could not recover.

The Jets threw the ball 39 times last week, as backups Trevor Siemian and rookie Luke Falk combined to go 22/27 for 146 yards and two touchdowns. But Davis Webb added two interceptions to the mix.

Also, New York only ran the ball 24 times for 69 yards.

Meanwhile, the Jets defense let Giants quarterbacks Daniel Jones, Alex Tanney, and Kyle Lauletta hit on 28/36 throws for 371 yards and three touchdowns.

Newcomer running back Le'Veon Bell did not play last week, and if we were the Jets, he wouldn't play this week, either.

Atlanta, meanwhile, moved to 0-2 this pre-season with a 34-27 loss at Miami last week. The Falcons led that game 19-10 late in the second quarter, gave up the next 17 points of the game to fall behind 27-19 but then tied the score with a touchdown and a 2-point conversion with just under five minutes to go. Some exhibition season play-calling by Atlanta set up a Dolphins touchdown with only under two minutes left, and a last-gasp Falcons drive ended just outside the Miami red zone.

As starting QB, Matt Ryan watched from the sidelines backups Matt Schaub, and Matt Simms combined to go 20/36 for 258 yards, with zero interceptions.

Two weeks ago Atlanta opened this NFL exhibition season with a 14-10 loss to Denver in the Hall of Fame game. Ryan didn't play that night, either.

These teams last met back in October of 2017 in a 25-20 Falcons win up in New Jersey.

NFL Betting Trends

  • New Jets head coach Adam Gase, formerly with Miami, is now 5-8 both SU and ATS in exhibition games.
  • Atlanta is now 5-13 SU, 4-14 ATS in four-plus pre-seasons under Coach Quinn, 0-10 both SU and ATS over the last two-plus.

Totals Report

  • The Jets game against the Giants last week breezed over a total of 35 points.
  • The Falcons game against the Broncos two weeks ago played under a total of 34, but last week's game against the Dolphins cruised over a total of 35.
  • Overs played 9-7-1 in Week 1 (plus the Hall of Fame game) of this exhibition season, as the games averaged 41 points against an average over/under of 36. Apparently, the oddsmakers noticed this, as they're apt to do because this week's totals are all juiced 3-4-5 points compared to last week's.

Jets at Falcons Prediction 08/15/19

Ryan playing a couple of series could mean 3-10 points to Atlanta, and the Falcons backup QBs have looked good so far. Meanwhile, the New York defense gave up a bunch of yards through the air last week. We like Atlanta here at home giving a short spread.

Free Pick: 
Take the Falcons -2
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