Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick ATS - Odds and Betting Predictions

Date: 
October 7, 1:00 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Chiefs -3
Total: 
49

This season the Jaguars are 3-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-2 and the Chiefs are 4-0 ATS with an O/U record of 3-1.

THE NFL LINE

The Chiefs opened as a 3.5-point favorite in this AFC matchup with a total of 51.5, and as of Wednesday morning, KC is at -3 with a total of 49.

Last Games: The Jaguars moved to 3-1 on the season with a 31-12 home win over the New York Jets where they easily covered the spread as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Chiefs remained undefeated with a 4-0 with a 27-23 road win over the Denver Broncos on Monday night football narrowly getting the ATS win as a -3.5 favorite. The 50 points scored fell short of the 53 total line for Kansas City’s first UNDER on the season.

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Jags at Chiefs NFL Game Set-Up

The Jaguars rebounded nicely from their first loss of the season especially on offense scoring 31 points in their easy victory of the Jets. The Jags had RB Leonard Fournette back, but he reinjured his hamstring and is expected to sit out in Week 5. TJ Yeldon will be counted on to carry to the ball, and he's struggled a bit this with 205 yards on 49 carries.

Blake Bortles has been up and down this season but had his best game of the campaign last week passing for a season-high 388 yards with two TD and one INT. The defense is still the strength for the Jaguars where they rank 1st in the NFL in overall defense and the scoring defense allowing an average of 14 PPG.

The Chiefs are rolling, and they are only one of two teams still without a loss. Patrick Mahomes has been stellar in his first season as the starting QB, passing for 304 yards or more in each of his last three games and for the season he has 14 TD and has not been picked off. He has a solid WR corps, arguably the best TE in the league in Travis Kelce, and a young stud RB in Kareem Hunt that rushed for 121 yards in the win over Denver.

While KC is buzzing mainly because of Mahomes, the Chiefs still rank dead-last in the league in defense. The offense has a tall task in this game facing Jax and their top-ranked defense, and the Chiefs rank 1st in the league averaging 36.3 PPG.

Head to Head: These teams last met in the 2016 season where the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 19-14.

Versus Betting Line: This season the Jaguars are 3-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-2 and the Chiefs are 4-0 ATS with an O/U record of 3-1.

Base Stats: This season the Jaguars rank 15th in the league in total offense and 1st in total defense and the Chiefs rank 8th in total offense and 32nd in total defense.

Sagarin Rankings

Jacksonville Jaguars: 23.01
Kansas City Chiefs: 24.37

Injuries

JAGUARS

(!)[RB] 10/01/2018 - Leonard Fournette is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs. Kansas City ( Hamstring )
[CB] 09/30/2018 - D.J. Hayden is "?" Sunday vs. Kansas City ( Toe )
[OL] 09/30/2018 - Brandon Linder injured last game, is "?" Sunday vs. Kansas City ( Back )
[OL] 09/23/2018 - Cam Robinson IR ( ACL )
[G] 09/04/2018 - Brandon Thomas IR ( Knee )
[CB] 09/04/2018 - Kenneth Acker IR ( Ankle )
[DT] 09/04/2018 - Michael Hughes IR ( Undisclosed )
[WR] 09/04/2018 - Tevaun Smith IR ( Undisclosed )
[WR] 09/04/2018 - Marqise Lee IR ( Knee )

CHIEFS

[DB] 09/04/2018 - Daniel Sorensen IR ( Knee )
[WR] 09/04/2018 - Byron Pringle IR ( Hamstring )
[OL] 09/04/2018 - Dillon Gordon IR ( Shoulder )
[RB] 09/04/2018 - J.D. Moore IR ( Undisclosed )
[OL] 09/04/2018 - Tejan Koroma IR ( Knee )
[DB] 10/01/2018 - Eric Berry is "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Heel )
[WR] 10/01/2018 - Sammy Watkins left last game, is "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Hamstring )

Jaguars at Chiefs NFL Key Betting Trends/Angles

  • JAX is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
  • JAX is 10-4 ATS in their previous 14 road games
  • JAX has an Over record of 4-1 in their previous 5 games against a team with a winning home record
  • KC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
  • KC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games
  • KC has an Under record or 5-0 in their previous 5 games against a team with a winning record

Head to Head Trends

The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between these teams.

Next Game Jaguars @ Cowboys
Chiefs @ Patriots

Get more details: Jacksonville at Kansas City NFL Match-Up

Jaguars at Chiefs Week 5 Prediction 10/07/2018

The Chiefs offense has been balanced this season, but they haven’t faced a defense that not only can stop the run (11th in RYPG) but the pass (2nd in PYPG) as well. The forecast is calling for steady rain for this game which may make them one dimensional. The Jags will be without star RB Leonard Fournette, and it’s significant downgrade to T.J. Yelton, but they do have the superior running QB in Blake Bortles who has 132 yards and a 7.3 YPC average this season. Jacksonville will also be facing one of the weakest run defenses in the league allowing 123 yards per game on a league-worst 5.6 yards. Taking the points backing a team with the vastly superior defense is the way to go here.

Free Pick: 
Take the Jaguars +3

For more picks from Rich Crew and the rest of our handicapping Crew make sure you have a look at our NFL Picks section for game previews and top favorite and dog picks against the points spread each week!