Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers AFC Playoff Pick - Betting Odds

January 14, 1:05 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Pittsburgh -7.5

In the first of two Divisional Round showdowns this Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars head into Heinz Field for the second time this season to face the Pittsburgh Steelers. Kickoff on CBS is set for 1:05 p.m.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh Game Overview

It was not pretty, but Jacksonville’s 10-3 grinder over Buffalo last Sunday in the Wild Card Round set up a rematch of Week 5 when the Jaguars steamrolled the Steelers 30-9 as 7.5-point road underdogs. They failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites against the Bills and the total stayed way UNDER the 40-point closing line. Jacksonville has now failed to cover against the spread in its last three games with the total staying UNDER in its last two.

Defense has been the Jaguars’ strength all season long and if they are going to have any shot at keeping this playoff run alive they are going to need the same kind of performance that led to that earlier victory in Pittsburgh. Jacksonville scored two touchdowns on interceptions while holding the Steelers to 371 yards of total offense. Last Sunday against the Bills, this unit rose to the occasion by keeping Buffalo out of the end zone all game long.


Pittsburgh has been on a tear since that lopsided loss to the Jaguars with 10 SU victories in its final 11 regular season games to finish at 13-3 SU on the year. Betting on the Steelers has been a whole other story all season long at 7-9 ATS. They have failed to cover in six of their last eight games including their last four games played at home. Pittsburgh is 6-8 ATS this season when closing as a favorite and the has gone OVER in five of their last seven outings.

Ben Roethlisberger ended that first game against Jacksonville with five interceptions and he has tossed 14 on the year against 28 touchdown throws. He ended the regular season with 4,251 passing yards while completing 64.2 percent of his 561 attempts. Antonio Brown was on the receiving end of 101 of his throws for 1,533 yards and nine touchdowns, while Le’Veon Bell anchored the running game with 1,291 yards rushing and nine more touchdowns on 321 carries.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh Game Betting Trends

  • The Jaguars have failed to cover in five of their last six postseason games on the road, but they have an 11-5 record ATS in their last 16 games against the conference. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last nine AFC games.
  • The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the AFC, but they have covered in seven of their last eight home playoff games. The total has stayed UNDER in 21 of their last 31 conference games.
  • Head-to-head in this AFC tilt, Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games against Pittsburgh and 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in the last three meetings.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh Free Game Prediction

Do not look for Jacksonville to put up 30 points again at Heinz Field this Sunday, but its defense will continue to pose problems for Big Ben and the Steelers’ high-powered offense. The only way the Jaguars have any chance of pulling off the season sweep is to keep things within a touchdown deep into the fourth quarter. I actually like Jacksonville’s chances to keep things close enough for the ATS win, but my ‘best bet’ pick is the UNDER on the current 41-point line.

Free Pick: 
Take the Under 41

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