Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans Pick - Odds and Against the Spread Predictions

December 30, 8:20 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Indianapolis -2.5

The final game of the 2018 NFL regular season should be a good one with the 9-6 Indianapolis Colts battling it out with the rival AFC South 9-6 Tennessee Titans for the final spot in the AFC playoffs. Sunday night’s kickoff from Nashville on NBC is set for 8:20 p.m.

Indianapolis at Tennessee Overview

The Colts bring a head of steam into this showdown with eight straight-up victories in their last nine games after getting past the New York Giants 28-27 in Week 16. They failed to cover as heavy 9.5-point home favorites in that win as part of a 5-3-1 record against the spread during this same span. Indianapolis is 3-4 SU on the road this season with a 4-3 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in five of its last six games overall. It won the first meeting against the Titans this season 38-10 on Nov. 18 as a slight 1.5-point home favorite.

You can credit most of the Colts’ recent success to the elevated play of Andrew Luck. It took him the early part of the season to return to form following an extended layoff due to injury. However, he has come around in a big way with 4,308 total passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns over the course of the entire year. TY Hilton has been his top target with 1,209 receiving yards and six scores on 74 receptions, and Marlon Mack has led the way on the ground with 789 rushing yards, and eight touchdown runs.

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Tennessee has strung together a SU four-game winning streak while going 2-2 ATS to stay in the playoff race. Last Saturday’s 25-16 victory at home against Washington as a heavy 11.5-point favorite raised its record to 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) at home this season. This includes SU wins against Houston, Philadelphia and New England. Their record ATS closing as underdogs this season is 6-3.

The playing status of quarterback Marcus Mariota has had some impact on the betting line for this game, but backup Blaine Gabbert has already proven he is capable of running the show. Regardless of which quarterback gets the start, you can expect to see a heavy dose of Derrick Henry running the ball. Tennessee will also rely heavily on a defense that has held opposing teams to just 18 points per game.

Colts at Titans Game Betting Trends

  • The Colts have covered the spread in their last five games against a SU winning team, but their record ATS in their previous 21 games following a straight up win is 6-13-2. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four conference games.
  • The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine division games and they have posted a 13-5-1 record ATS in their previous 19 home games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last games against a division opponent.
  • Head-to-head in this AFC South tilt, the favorite has covered in the last four meetings, and the total has gone OVER in four of the previous five meetings in Tennessee.

Colts at Titans Prediction 12/30/2018

The Colts have been one of the hottest teams in the AFC over the second half of the season, but getting past Tennessee on the road with so much on the line for either side will be a tall task. This game comes down to Luck's ability to move the ball downfield and score points against the Titans' stout defense.

My lean would actually be towards the Titans playing at home, but my ‘best bet’ is the UNDER on the 44-point total line.

Free Pick: 
Take the Under 44
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