Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams Free Pick - Betting Odds

September 10, 4:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Rams -3.5

Indianapolis finished 8-8 last year and missed the playoffs for the 2nd-straight season. The Rams didn’t have a happy homecoming in LA and finished the year on a 1-11 run, 4-12 overall. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2004.

The Colts will be playing this game without QB Andrew Luck, still recovering from shoulder surgery in January. Scott Tolzien will be under center to start the game but the fact Indy shipped former No.1 pick WR Philip Dorsett to the Patriots for QB Jacoby Brissett speaks volumes about their concern for Luck and lack of faith in Tolzien. If Luck is out for any length of time, expect to see Brissett as the starter. WR T.Y. Hilton is the best skill-position player on the Colts and he’ll get some deep looks this week. The Rams had only 31 sacks in 2016, 8 by DT Aaron Donald, who has held out all camp and as of this writing, hasn’t reported. He is not only their best defender, he is their best player. RB Frank Gore can expect to see a lot of action in this one and could find openings against a defense transitioning to a 3-4 under new DC Wade Phillips. I’m not sure the current personnel are a good scheme fit right now and I expect this group to struggle in the first half of the season.

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Los Angeles will look to RB Todd Gurley to move the chains against a defense that has struggled to stop the run for several seasons. Indy has added several younger, faster players to their front seven in the hopes of attacking the run and getting after the QB. The jury is still out on this plan. Nevertheless, look for the Colts to key on Gurley and force QB Jared Goff to make plays through the air, something he couldn’t do in a poor rookie season in 2016. WR Sammy Watkins was added a few weeks ago but hasn’t meshed with Goff yet. WR Tavon Austin had a 3-TD performance the last time these teams met in 2013 but he has been reduced to mainly a gadget player now. Goff lacks composure in the pocket and don’t be surprised if the Colts dial up a few blitzes to try to force him into mistakes.

Public Money Consensus

In this week 1 matchup between Indianapolis and Los Angeles have the public leaning to the Rams to cover the 3.5 point spread at home with 65% on board. The over/under bettors are banking big time on this game staying below the posted total line of 41.5 with over 80%.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams Week 1 Prediction

Both of these teams have offenses that will struggle in the early going. Luck’s absence leaves a huge void while the Rams have o-line issues as well as a QB who may not be ready for prime time. I expect a low-scoring affair and think the Under is the way to go in this one.

Free Pick: 
Take the Under 41.5

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